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Copper stays strong

We had measured a Fibonacci retracement on copper from the high at the 243.71 level to the low at the 200.17 level. After copper made a low at the 200.17 level, it stalled there and started to consolidate. On the last few days the commodity has stayed above the 23.6% Fibo, around the 210.53 level. If the price continues rallying, then the 38.2% Fibo, around the 216.84 level could act as its next resistance. To the downside, the 203.46 could act once again as a support in case the price falls again to that zone.

The Pound versus the Yen keeps its bearish trend

The GBP/JPY breaks below the 180.00 level and keeps its bearish trend from a few weeks back. The drop stalls momentarily at the 179.00 level, but it could keep falling towards the 178.00 level, which could also act as support. Above the 180.00 level we have a few round number levels which could act as resistance, but the most important one is the zone between the 183.00 and the 184.00 levels.

EUR/JPY: Pullback to the 200 EMA on the 4 hour chart

The 200 period exponential moving average or 200 EMA could work as a good support or resistance zona, especially on the higher time frames like the 4 hour chart. On the 4 hour chart of the EUR/JPY we can see that after it broke below the 200 EMA to the downside, it has now retraced back to it and the EMA may act as a resistance from where the price may try to bounce to the downside. Above the 200 EMA, the 133.00 level may also act as resistance. Below the 132.00 level, the 133.00 could act as support.

The Euro versus the Yen bounces from the 131.00 level

The Euro versus the Yen has reached the round number level of the 131.00, as we can see on the daily chart and bounces from that level to the upside. If the price continues retracing to the upside, the 132.00 could act as resistance, but above the 132, the 133.00 or the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 134.43 level could also act as resistance. During next week, the price could continue falling and the pair could try to go and visit the 129.67 low.

76.4% Fibo retracement on the AUD/USD

After the AUD/USD rallied from the 0.7016 to the 0.7384, the pair started to retrace to the downside with some volatility and reaches the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement where it was consolidating during the last few days. However, today we see that the bearish momentum comes in again and the pair breaks below the 61.8% Fibo to reach the 76.4% Fibo, around the 0.7102 where it has stalled momentarily. From this point the price may try to retrace to the 50% Fibo around the 0.7199, but if it breaks to the downside its next support level could be the low at the 0.7016 level from where it started rising.

EUR/USD: Volatile, but the consolidation continues

Today we had the Federal Reserve’s announcement out of the US, where the central bank has raised its interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The Euro versus the Dollar became very volatile after the announcement and tried to break below the 1.0900 and above the 1.1000 level, but then it settled around the 1.0900 level again. On the daily chart we can see that the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line) is around the 1.0900 level and continues acting as a good support. The direction of the pair now depends on the future fundamentals from the United States and the Eurozone. In order for the pair to break below the 1.0900 level, the US fundamentals must come out a lot better than expected and in order for it to break above the 1.1000 level, the Eurozone fundamentals must also come out a lot better than expected.

EUR/CAD: Bounce from the 76.4% Fibo

The Euro versus the Canadian Dollar has suffered a drop from the 1.5561 to the 1.4024, but during the last couple of weeks the pair has been retracing to the upside and it has reached the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement as shown on the daily chart. The 76.4% Fibo could act as a good support or resistance zone and that is why we are seeing the price stall at that level and goes back to the 61.8% Fibo, around the 1.4971 level. If the pair continues dropping, then its next support could be the 38.2% Fibo, around the 1.4609 level. To the upside, the 76.4% Fibo could continue acting as a resistance, but if it breaks that level to the upside, then its next resistance could be the 1.5561 level from where it started dropping.

GBP/JPY: Good resistance at the 183.00 level

The Pound versus the Yen drops below Friday’s low around the 183.55 level and breaks below the 183.00 level. The price came very close to the 182.00 level, but it couldn’t reach that level. On the 15 minute chart of the GBP/JPY we can see that after the price broke below the 183.00 level, it made a few pullbacks to that level, but it could pass above it. It clearly shows that the 183.00 has been acting as a good resistance, but a head and shoulders pattern may be developing, which means that if completed, the price may change direction to the upside. To the downside, the 182.00 may act as its next support.

AUD/USD: Another attempt towards the 61.8% Fibo

Yesterday the Australian Dollar rallied versus the US Dollar, pushed by the better than expected readings on the Australian labor sector, but today we see that the pair has fallen again rapidly and it is trying to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the 0.7016 level to the 0.7384. The 61.8% Fibo is around the 0.7156 level and if the price visits that level, it may try to bounce from that zone to the upside. Below the 61.8% Fibo, the 76.4% may also act as a support. To the upside, the 23.6% may act as a resistance in case the price goes back up.

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The Nikkei at the 200 day EMA

The Nikkei index has been in a downtrend lately, being hurt in part by the weak Chinese fundamentals and a global economic slowdown. Today the index has dropped to the 200 day exponential moving average, around the round number level of the 19000. The combination of the 200 day EMA and the round number level may cause this area to act as a good support and the index may try to bounce to the upside. However, the fundamentals must help the technical in order to see a change in direction on the index. If the Nikkei breaks below the 200 day EMA, then the 18668 level may act as its next support. To the upside, the lower line of the channel at the 19709 level may act as resistance in case we see a bullish bounce.

The EUR/USD goes back to the 1.0900 level

The EUR/USD made a low yesterday on the 1.0800 level and from there it bounce to the upside, all the way to the 1.0900 level, as seen on the 30 minute chart. At the 1.0900 level, the pair may find some resistance, but the bullish momentum is still in place. Since the price has already visited the zone three times and each visit is getting closer to each other, that could be an indication of a possible bullish breakout. In case the price breaks to the upside, the 1.1000 could be its next target for the pair. A bounce to the downside from the 1.0900 level could take the price back down to the 1.0800.

Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on the EUR/USD 15 min

The inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal formation that usually appear at a key support level. On the EUR/USD 15 minute chart we can see that during today’s session, the price dropped below Friday’s low and touched the 1.0800 level from where it bounces to the upside. Around the 1.0800 level we can see three troughs the form the Head and Shoulders pattern. The Neckline is the upper trendline that is broken to the upside, from there the bullish momentum accelerates and the price breaks above Friday’s low. Form the current levels, the price may continue rallying, but it may also dropped once again, trying to visit the 1.0800 which could act as support.

Oil breaks below the 40.00 level

Even though light crude oil retraced yesterday to the upside, the 41.19 level has acted as a resistance and today oil bounces to the downside and breaks below the 40.00 level to make a daily low around the 39.59 level. Amid the latest meetings by the OPEC members, there are no real fundamental reasons for oil to stage a sustainable rally and that is why it remains weak. Below the 40.00 level, the 39.00 level could act as its next support. To the upside, the 41.19 level could continue acting as resistance.

EUR/GBP: Visits the 200 day EMA

The 200 day exponential moving average or EMA, could act as a good support or resistance zone, especially when the price suddenly visits the moving average after a prolonged drop or rally. The Euro strengthens versus its main counterparts after the European Central Bank failed to provide enough economic stimuli as the market was anticipating. That is why we can see on the daily chart of the EUR/GBP that the price reaches the 200 day EMA (blue line), around the 0.7244 level, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent drop and stalls there. It is possible for that EMA to act as resistance and the price may try to bounce to the 55 day EMA (purple line), around the 0.7143 level, which could act as support. Above the 50% Fibo, the 61.8% Fibo could also act as resistance in case the price continues going higher, especially when it is just around the 0.7300 round number level.

Oil reaches the 40.00 level

The January contract on light sweet crude oil has reached the 40.00 level. A few days ago we saw the possibility of seeing oil reach that level and today it has done so. At this level, oil may try to stall or bounce to the upside, but the bearish momentum is still in place and it could try to go lower towards the 37.73 level, since there are no strong fundamental reasons for oil to rally for now. To the upside, the 41.19 level could act as a temporary resistance, above that level, the 44.00 level could act as its next resistance.

Head and Shoulders pattern on the Kiwi

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar has formed what it appears to be an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern on the daily chart. By breaking above the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line), the price has also broken above the pattern’s neckline or confirmation line. At the moment the price is trying to retrace a little bit, but that is normal in this type of formations. The price may continue higher and the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 0.6803 level may act as its next resistance.

The Kiwi remains range-bound

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar has stayed in a range between the 0.6500 as support and the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line), around the 0.6577 as resistance. Today was an up day for the pair but it still couldn’t break above the 55 day EMA, as shown on the daily chart. A breakout above the 55 day EMA could make the price gain some bullish momentum and its next resistance could be the 200 day EMA (blue line), around the 0.6800 level. To the downside, its first support below the 0.6500 level could be the 0.6428 level. Below the low at the 0.6428, its next support could be the 0.6236 level.

Gasoline: Consolidation on the weekly chart

The January gasoline contract on the weekly chart has been going sideways, coinciding with the current consolidation on crude oil. If during the next month the price breaks to the upside above the resistance around the 1.5040 level, then gasoline may try to go and visit its 55 week exponential moving average (purple line), around the 1.7461 level, which could act as its next resistance. Regardless of the current consolidation, the price keeps a slight bearish slope, therefore it could also try to break below the 1.2021 level. If it does break below the 1.2021 level, then the 1.1000 level may act as its next support.

Pivot Points, The turning levels of Price

The word “pivot” means a turning point. The pivot points indicator was initially used by Futures pit traders to increase their probability of entering in an instrument when it was about to change direction. Today, we don’t longer need a piece of paper with the pivot point levels written on them like those traders in the past needed to have. With the trading platform we can get a better visual understanding of the pivot point levels and we can trade more easily off those levels. ActivTrades has created a pivot point indicator that can be installed on your MetaTrader 4 or MetaTrader 5 trading platform. By having the pivot points drawn directly on the charts, we can trade either the bounces or breakouts of those levels and we don’t need to do any calculations, the platform automatically gives us day by day the new pivot points. To download the indicator please visit:

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The GBP/JPY breaks below its bullish channel

The Pound versus the Yen was inside a well-formed bullish channel on the daily chart, but during the past two days it has broken below it and below the 200 day exponential moving average (blue line), around the 185.94 level. Even though the price corrects to the upside during today´s session, that could just be a retracement to continue falling. If the price continues falling, then the 184.00 could act as its next support. In case the price breaks above the 200 day exponential moving average, then its next resistance could be the 187.00.

Bullish pullback on corn

The corn contract for December has made a low around the 355.24 level from where it has been pulling back to the upside as seen on the daily chart. The current pullback could provide us with an opportunity to enter short, but the question now is up to what point the price may retrace. The stochastics are close to reaching the over-bought area. If the stochastics reach the over-bought zone at the same time that the price reaches the 200 day exponential moving average around the 379.89 level, we could wait for a bounce from there for a potential short entry. For now, we just have to wait for the price to continue retracing and break above the current 364.00 level.

The Kiwi finds a good resistance on the 55 day EMA

Since Thursday of last week, the NZD/USD reached the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line), around the 0.6582 where it has stalled and bounces back to the downside during today´s session. On the same daily chart we can see that the pair has actually stayed in a bearish channel and it is possible to see the price falling back down. To the downside, the 0.6428 could act as support, but if the price breaks above the upper trendline of the channel, then the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 0.6822 level could act as resistance.

Gold: It consolidates, but keeps its bearish trend

After making a low around the 1063 level, gold stalls its fall during the last two days and it is going sideways as we can see on the daily chart. The 55 day exponential moving average (purple line), around the 1122 level could act as a resistance in case the price retraces to the upside. However, fundamentally there are no reasons yet for gold to rally, unless the Dollar weakens or the risk aversion increases in the markets for any reason. The 1063 level could continue acting as support, but the probability of seeing a breakdown is high.

NZD/USD: Resistance at the 55 day EMA

The 55 day exponential moving average or EMA could act as a good support or resistance zone on some occasions. On the daily chart of the New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar we can see that the pair has kept a good bearish trend and it has stayed within a channel. But after the price broke below the 55 day EMA (purple line) and made a low at the 0.6428 level, the pair rallies again to the 55 day EMA where it stalls at the moment. That level of the 0.6582, where the 55 day EMA is located could have the price bounce to the downside. However, the pair may also break above the 55 day EMA and if that happens, then the 200 day EMA (blue line) at the 0.6830 level could act as its next resistance.

Copper at six year lows

Copper continues with its bearish trend, but at the moment it seems like it is finding some support at the 206.62 level. Due to the fact that the bearish trend is still strong, the price of copper could fall towards the 202.00 level, which could act as a temporary support. Likewise, due to the big drop, we could see a bullish pullback and the commodity could try to go and visit the 220.17 zone, which has acted as a support in the past and now it could act as a resistance.

Gasoline continues falling

The gasoline contract for December continues falling and it is currently consolidating just below the 55 period exponential moving average on the one hour chart (purple line), after it made a low for today around the 1.2021. Besides the 55 hour exponential moving average, the 1.2545 level has been acting as a good resistance, but a breakout of that level could cause the price of gasoline to retrace to the upside towards the 200 hour exponential moving average (blue line), around the 1.3018 level. To the downside, the 1.2021 level may continue acting as a support.

The EUR/USD breaks below the 1.0700 level

The Euro versus the Dollar started the session weak after the Paris attacks on Friday and drops below the 1.0700 level as seen on the daily chart. But the attacks on Paris are not the strongest reason of why the Euro has been dropping. In reality, the Euro remains weak, because of the divergence in monetary policies between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. This week’s fundamentals could be key to the future direction of the pair. Tomorrow we have the ZEW economic sentiment out of Germany and the inflation numbers out of the US. If the inflation in the US has risen, then the FED could have another reason to raise interest rates and the EUR/USD could continue falling towards the 1.0600 level.

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Gold seems to be heading lower

Gold has been consolidating during the last few day, as we can see on the daily chart, but today the precious metal has made a lower low, indicating that it remains weak and it could continue falling. Due to the fact that the Dollar and gold have a negative correlation, if the Dollar continues strengthening during this week, gold may reach the support level at the 1070 zone. To the upside, the 1098 level could act as resistance, but if it breaks that level, it may retrace to the 1115 zone.

The Dow Jones keeps its bullish trend

The Dow Jones index seems to be resting for today and the daily candle is forming what it appears to be a “doji” formation. That doji could indicate some exhaustion of the recent rally, but the uptrend is still in place. In case the index breaks to the downside the bullish trendline that we see on the daily chart, it could try to go and visit the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 17280 level, which could act as support. To the upside, the 17909 level could act as resistance, but above that level, the 18078 could also act as resistance.

The Pound keeps its bearish trend

The Pound versus the Dollar retraces above the 1.5100 level, but its bearish trend is still in place. The pair may try to fall to the 1.5000 level, which could act as its next support. To the upside, the 1.5200 level could act as resistance, but we don’t have real strong fundamentals to merit a rally above current levels. The pair has been respecting the round number levels, therefore it pays to be attentive of those zones for possible entry opportunities.

Big rally on the Dollar after the NFP numbers

Today we had the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls number out of the US. The reading of new jobs created for the month on October came out much better than expected, causing the Dollar to rally versus its major peers. It was forecasted a reading of 180K new jobs, but the reading actually came out at 271K new jobs. The unemployment rate fell from 5.1% to 5% and the average hourly wages rose 0.4% when the forecasted was a rise of 0.2%. The numbers clearly came out way better than expected, and actually this has been the best reading since 2009. The Dollar index broke above the 98.39, but if it retraces, that level could act as support. Its next resistance could be the 100.28.

The Russian Ruble stays in a bearish channel

The Dollar versus the Russian Ruble on the daily chart has been consolidating around the 55 period exponential moving average, around the 63.57, but in the longer term we can see that the pair has formed a bearish channel. The price stays within that channel and it could try to head lower. If the price drops from the current levels, then the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 59.07 level could act as support. If the price breaks the upper trendline of the channel, then the pair may change direction, but in order for that to happen the Dollar would have to strengthen with the upcoming US fundamentals.

EUR/JPY: Bearish breakdown of symmetrical triangle

On Monday we identified a symmetrical triangle on the Euro versus the Yen, daily chart. Today we can see that the price has broken below the triangle and the formation has acted as a continuation pattern. At the moment the price has reached the 132.00 level, which could act as a support, but if it breaks that level to the downside, then the bearish momentum may accelerate and it may try to go and reach the 131.00 level. To the upside, the 133.00 could act as resistance, but above that level, the 135.00 could be an even stronger resistance.

Bullish flag on the Kiwi

The “Bullish Flag” is a continuation pattern that forms at the end of an uptrend. The pattern forms when the price consolidates after a bullish run and starts going sideways, but with a slight slope to the downside. On the daily chart of the New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar we can see that once the price touched the 200 day exponential moving average (blue line), it started correcting to the downside and creating what we call a bullish flag. Today the price breaks below the 0.6700 level and it is close to touching the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line), which is just above the 0.6600 level. The 55 day EMA may act as a support and the price may try to bounce to the upside from there, but if it breaks that zone to the downside, then the bullish flag would be invalidated and the price may try to go and reach the 0.6500 level. To the upside, the 0.6800 may act as a resistance, but the 200 day EMA may act as a stronger resistance on the Kiwi.

Symmetrical triangle on the EUR/JPY

The Euro versus the Yen on the daily chart has been oscillating between the 133.00 and the 132.00. During that consolidation, the price has formed what it appears to be a “symmetrical triangle”. The Triangle formations usually act as continuation patterns, meaning that the price continues in the direction where it was coming from coming into the formation, but in reality the price may break out in any direction. If the price breaks to the downside, then the 131.00 level could act as support. If the price breaks to the upside, then the 135.00 level could act as resistance.

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Incredible rally on light crude oil

The December contract for light crude oil rallied for today to the 46.00 zone after the oil inventories came out lower than expected. This has caused traders to close their short positions rapidly, causing a short squeeze. At the moment, the 46.00 level may act as a resistance and oil may try to bounce from that level to the downside, especially because the 55 day exponential moving average is very close to that zone. If the price bounces to the downside, then the 44.00 level may act as support. To the upside, if the price breaks above the 46.00 level, then the bullish momentum may accelerate and oil could go and visit the 50.00 level once again.

EUR/JPY: Possible breakdown below the 133.00 level

The Euro versus the Yen has come back to its bearish trend amid a rise in risk aversion, which has caused the Yen to strengthen. At the moment, the pair is trying to break below the 133.00 round number level and if the breakdown is confirmed then we could see a visit to the 132.00 level. To the upside, if the price goes back above the 133.00, then the 134.00 could act as its next resistance.

Possible breakdown from the 44.00 level on light crude

The 44.00 level has been a very good support for light crude oil since the end of August and even though the price has tried to break it to the downside, it has always bounced back to the upside. However, oil has had a very good sustainable downtrend as we can see on the daily chart and it is possible that this time the price is falling with enough force to break below the 44.00 level. If the 44.00 level is breached to the downside, then the bearish momentum may accelerate and the price may try to go and visit the 40.00 level. But if the price bounces from the 44.00 to the upside, then the 46.00 may act as a resistance.

The USD/CHF reaches a resistance zone

The Dollar has been strengthening versus the Swiss Franc due to the fact that if the European Central Bank expands its economic stimulus, then most probably the Swiss National Bank would have to lower its interest rates even more, which are currently already in negative territory. The 0.9800 level could act as a resistance as we can see on the daily chart and from there the price may try to bounce to the downside. However, if the price breaks above that level, then the next round number level of the 0.9900 could act as resistance. To the downside, the 200 day exponential moving average around the 0.9572 level could act as support.

Platinum keeps its bullish trend

Even though the commodities sector has been in a downtrend, platinum has kept a very good bullish trend as we can see on the daily chart. During the last few days, platinum has taken a break after hitting a high at the 1023.87 level, but this consolidation could just be a resting point to continue going higher. If it breaks above the 1023.87 level, the price may find some resistance at the 1035.85. There is also the probability of seeing a retracement to the downside, therefore if the price breaks below the 997.46, the bearish momentum may accelerate.

Volatility with no direction on the EUR/USD

The Euro versus the Dollar has stayed inside a range between the 1.1300 level as support and the 1.1400 as resistance. The lack of fundamental announcements from the Eurozone and from the US has kept the pair much undecided. Tomorrow we have the European Central Bank meeting and speech and probably investors and traders are waiting for this information before taking any bets on the EUR/USD. Even though during the last few days we can see a consolidation on the daily chart, we have actually detected a breakdown of the last bullish trend. However, the price may try to go back up and if it breaks above the 1.1400 level, it may try to go and visit the 1.1500. Below the 1.1300, its next important support could be the 1.1200 level.

Oil keeps its bearish momentum

Oil keeps its downtrend and has entered again the previous consolidation area below its 55 day exponential moving average (purple line). At the moment, crude may find some support at the 45.69 zone, but if it breaks that level to the downside, then it may try to go and visit the 44.00. To the upside, the 50.00 level may continue acting as a resistance.

Good resistance on the Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso along with most of the emerging market currencies has been suffering strong drops versus the Dollar, but on the 4 hour chart of the USD/MXN we can see how the Dollar has been losing strength versus the Mexican Peso and it seems like it has formed a bearish channel. The pair has made some bullish retracements inside the channel, but the 55 period exponential moving average (purple line), has acted as a good resistance. That is why now that the price is visiting once again that moving average, it may act as a resistance and the price may try to bounce to the downside. If the price bounces to the downside, then the low at the 16.32 level may act as a support. If it breaks to the upside, the 200 period exponential moving average (blue line), may act as a resistance.

Copper retraces to the downside during today’s session

Copper has had a good uptrend for the last few weeks as we can see on the daily chart of the December contract. During the last few days it has stay consolidated just above the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line), which has acted as a good support. Today we see that the price has retraced to that moving average, but it could continue rallying. If the price continues rallying then its next resistance could be the 249.31 level. Above the 249.31 level, its next resistance could be the 200 day exponential moving average (blue line) at the 257.56. If it breaks below the bullish trendline, then its next support could be the low at the 222.66 level.

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Follow-up on the “Rising Wedge” of corn

A few days ago we identified a Rising Wedge formation on the daily chart of corn and we said that it would probably take it a few more days before breaking to the downside. However, today we see that the price has broken below the lower trendline of the rising wedge and the bearish momentum may accelerate from this point on. The target of the rising wedge is the lowest level of the formation, meaning the low at the 345.54 level. Even though the price may do some retracements along the way, it is possible for the price to reach that level. If the price goes back inside the formation, then the pattern will be invalidated and the 399.50 level could act as resistance.