AUD/USD: Good bullish bounce from the 0.7600 level

The Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar has visited again the 0.7600 level and bounces from it to the upside, but this bounce could be short-lived. The next resistance on the AUD/USD could be the 0.7700 level; however, if the price returns to the 0.7600 level, the probabilities of seeing a breakdown of that level rises, especially if the rumors about a possible rate cut in Australia continue, and if the Greenback strengthens on the back of better than expected US fundamentals.

How far down could the AUD/USD drop?

The Australian Dollar keeps dropping versus the US Dollar and it is getting closer to the 0.7600 level. Actually, just a little bit above that level, we can see that the pair would have retraced 100% of its last run up and it will also indicate a complete parabolic retracement. It is important to pay attention to that possible visit of the 0.7600, because the level could have the price stall there or even probably bounce back up. On the other hand, a breakdown of that area could accelerate the bearish momentum due to the fact that the zone has been a very important support level in the past.

Gold: Pullback to the 200 EMA on the 4 hour chart

Gold has been making some very interesting movements around its 200 period exponential moving average on the 4 hour chart (blue line), around the 1194.18 zone. At the beginning of the week we saw how the price reached that moving average and how it consolidated there for a while before breaking to the upside. The price has now come back to its 200 EMA and it looks like it is completing a breakout and pullback pattern. Let’s pay attention to this pullback to the 200 EMA, because we could see a bounce to the upside from here.

The USD/SGD bounces to the upside from a key support level

The US Dollar versus the Singaporean Dollar has found a good support around the 1.3636 zone. A little bit below that level we can see the 55 period exponential moving average on the daily chart (purple line), which has also contributed to make this zone a good support area. We can see that the uptrend is still in place and the pair may try to go back and visit the 1.3935 area, especially if the Gross Domestic Product reading out of the US for this Friday comes out better than expected.

AUDUSD: Possible return to the 0.7800 level

The Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar couldn’t stay above the 0.7900 level, even though it tried to break it in a couple of occasions. On the 4 hour chart we can see how the price is trying to come back down to the 0.7800 level, which could become a good support for the pair. A little bit below the 0.7800 we can see the 200 EMA (blue line), which could also help make this zone a good support. Let us be attentive to a possible visit to the 0.7800, because the price may try to bounce to the upside from there.

Gold: Breakout or bounce from the 200 EMA, 4 hour chart?

Gold has been having a good pullback lately, in part supported by the decline in the US Dollar. On the 4 hour chart we can see that the price has reached the 200 exponential moving average zone around the 1193.31. The 200 EMA tends to become a good support or resistance level, especially on the 4 hour chart. However, we can see on the chart that the price has already touched the 200 EMA once and it tried to bounce from there, but it has now come back to that level. The more times the price visits that 200 EMA or consolidates around it, the higher the probabilities of seeing a breakout instead of a bounce. The best thing to do is to wait for confirmation of the breakout and then the pullback to this same moving average for a possible long entry.

AUD/USD: Possible test of the 0.7900 level

The Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar has finally broken out above the 0.7800 level and it may try to visit the 0.7900 level. A possible visit of the 0.7900 could have the price bounce to the downside from there, because that level could become a good resistance. If there is indeed a bounce to the downside from the 0.7900 level, price may try to come back to the 0.7800 again. Therefore, we must attentive as to how the price may react once it tests the 0.7900 level.

61.8% Fibo retracement on the GBP/USD

The Pound has come back to the upside versus the US Dollar for today and it has retraced to the 61.8% Fibo as seen on the one hour chart. The retracement is from the run that it made from the high on Wednesday at the 1.5162 to yesterday’s low at the 1.4688 level. The Fibonacci retracements of 61.8% and 76.4% could act as very important support or resistance levels. In this case, the GBP/USD has retraced to the 61.8% and it is trying to bounce to the downside from there. A good trading technique to use, is to place the stop loss above the 76.4%, because on occasions the price tends to go and visit that level before turning back.

EMAs confluence on the NZD/USD

The exponential moving averages or EMAs could act as dynamic support or resistance levels. When two moving averages coincide around the same level on different time frames, this can cause that area to become a very important support or resistance. On the NZD/USD we can see that the 55 EMA on the 4 hour chart is at almost the same level as the 200 EMA on the one hour chart, around the 0.7380.

From the zone of the 0.7380 we can see that the price has bounced to the upside and breaks above the 0.7400 level once again. On the 4 hour chart we can also see that the 200 EMA is around the 0.7445 level and it could act as a good resistance level; therefore, we must be attentive to a possible visit of the price to that zone, because there could be a bounce to the downside from that area.

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Huge pullback on the USD/JPY

The Dollar weakened versus its main counterparts after the FED announcement, but just as it fell, we also saw some big retracements on its main crosses. On the Dollar versus the Yen, we see that the pair initially fell below the round number level of the 120.00 and the 200 period exponential moving average on the 4 hour chart (blue line). The pair managed to make a low around the 119.29 level, but it goes back to the upside leaving a relatively long lower shadow, just to go back above the 120.00 level. From this point on we may see a continuation of the drop, but can also tell that the buyers have taken control of the situation. The 121.00 level could become a good resistance for the pair and a pullback all the way to that level could have the price bounce back down from there. 

Double top on the NZD/USD?

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar has been trading within a well-defined range between the 0.7400 and the 0.7300. On the last two visits that the price made to the 0.7400 area, we can notice that it has not been able to break above that level and stay over it. Now the price has come back to the 0.7300 level and it has formed what it appears to be a double top pattern. The confirmation line or neckline is right on the 0.7300 level, which indicates that a possible breakdown of that level could take the price all the way to the 0.7200 zone, which has been a very important support level for the pair. 

Possible bearish bounce on the EUR/USD from the 1.0600

The Euro versus the Dollar goes back up above the 1.0500 level and makes a 100 pip move to the 1.0600 zone. Once the price got to that level, it tries to break it to the upside, but the bullish momentum loses strength and the price comes back down. At the moment the price may try to head back down to the 1.0500 level, but that level could become a good support for the pair. We can notice on the 5 minute chart of the EUR/USD that the price has already visited two times the 1.0500 and that level has held the price from falling further.

New low on the EUR/USD

The Euro returned to its downtrend versus the US Dollar and drops below the 1.0500 level to reach a new low at the 1.0461 level. At the moment the pair is trying to pull back to the upside, but most probably it will close below the 1.0500, due to the possibility that this level could become a good resistance. Let’s wait and see if next week the downtrend continues and the pair reaches the 1.0400 level. From this point on, the pair is heading closer to parity, just like analysts have been forecasting lately.

AUD/USD: Consolidation around the 0.7700 level

The Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar is consolidating around the 0.7700 level and it stays below the 200 period exponential moving average on the one hour chart (blue line), after a bullish retracement on a day that has shown some weakness on the greenback. From this current level the price may head in any direction, but since the trend coming into this consolidation is bullish, then there are more probabilities of seeing a breakout to the upside. If we see confirmation of the breakout and a pullback to this same level, especially to the 200 period moving average, then we may get an opportunity to go long.

Good rally on the NZD/USD

The New Zealand Dollar has suddenly risen versus the US Dollar after comments from the New Zealand Reserve Bank, where they confirm that interest rates will stay at current levels for a prolonged period of time. This has caused the NZD/USD to rally 100 pips from the 0.7200 level to the 0.7300 level, where we can also see a little bit below that level the 55 period exponential moving average on the one hour chart. This area is currently acting as a resistance for the pair and it is possible to see a bounce to the downside from this levels, due to the fact that the downtrend is still in place. However, if we do see a breakout to the upside, the price may try to reach its next round number level of the 0.7400 area where we can also notice the 200 exponential moving average on the same one hour chart.

EUR/USD – Possible bullish bounce at the 1.0700 level

The Euro keeps weakening versus the Dollar and has reached levels that it has not visited since 12 years ago. Investors are now expectant of the moment in which the pair reaches parity, which is when it reaches the 1.0000 level. However, we know that the markets never go up or down in a straight line and they show some pullbacks on the way. That is why it is possible to see a bounce to the upside from the 1.0700 level on the EUR/USD. Such a bounce could take the price back up to the 1.0800 level, but since the bearish trend is still in place, that zone of the 1.0800 could become a good resistance on the pair and the price may try to go back down from that area.

Possible visit to the 0.7300 on the Kiwi

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar is very close to touching the psychological round number of 0.7300 to the downside. Let us pay close attention to this visit, because we could get an opportunity to enter the market here. On the first touch it is possible to see an initial bounce to the upside, but if we see a breakdown of the 0.7300 level, then we could wait for confirmation of such breakdown and then the pullback to the same level for a possible short entry. In case of the price bouncing to the upside, let’s pay attention to a visit to the 0.7400 level, which could act as resistance and the price may stall there.

NFP data

The Non-Farm Payrolls data out of the US came out better than expected, causing the Dollar to strengthen versus its major counterparts. The market was expecting a reading of 240,000 new jobs for the month of February, but the number came out at 295,000 new jobs, causing the greenback to rise and supporting the FED on its plans to raise its interest rates by the middle of this year. The Euro versus the Dollar has weaken to levels not seen since September 2003. It is possible to see further losses on the Euro, especially now that the European Central Bank is expected to kick start its bill printing press to create more Euros in circulation in the Eurozone.

Bearish channel on the EUR/AUD with EMA’s cross under

The EUR/AUD has continued making lower lows as we can see on the 4 hour chart and it has kept doing the breakout and pullback pattern on its way down. What we can see is that every time the price makes a lower low, price tends to pull back to the previous low, which usually becomes resistance. Therefore, it is possible to see a continuation to the down side, especially now that the 55 period exponential moving average (purple line) has crossed below the 200 period exponential moving average, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend.

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The USD/CAD has stayed within a descending triangle pattern

The USD/CAD has found a good resistance at the 1.2700 level, but it has not been able to break below the 1.2400 level either. On the daily chart we can see that the price has created some type of descending triangle, even though the trend coming into the formation should be bearish. However, we can see a very well formed pattern with a good support at the 1.2400 level. If a downwards breakout happens, then we may get a very good opportunity to go short, especially if we do get a pullback to the 1.2400 level after the breakdown.

Possible bullish bounce on the Kiwi

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar has dropped from the 0.7600 level to the 0.7500 level and it looks like it wants to stall at that zone. It is possible to see a bounce to the upside, but a breakout to the downside is also probable. However, at the moment the price seems to be losing its bearish momentum around the 0.7500 level. If we do see a breakdown of the 0.7500 level, then we could wait for the pullback for a possible short entry.