Will there be a trend change on the GBP/JPY?

The Pound versus the Yen has kept a good uptrend and once it reached the 196.00 level on the daily chart, it stopped there and bounced to the downside. The price dropped more than 300 pips after the bounce and breaks below the 193.00 level. At the same time the price breaks the bullish trendline indicating a possible change in the trend. If the price keeps dropping, then the 190.00 may act as a support. If the price goes back up, the 196.00 level may act again as resistance.

The Euro fills up the gap and returns to Friday’s high

The drop in the Euro did not last long, due to the fact that there is speculation that the markets have already priced in a possible Grexit and it is believed that the European Central Bank has enough resources to mitigate any adverse effects from Greece leaving the EU. The Euro comes back to the upside, but we do not know for sure how it will react to the Non-Farm Payrolls, which if it comes out better than expected, we may see the EURUSD come back down. It is also believed that whatever happens with Greece, it will not change the future plans of the FED of raising its interest rates.

No major movements in the markets

Currencies were somehow volatile for today, but no clear direction. It seems like the big players are staying on the sidelines, just awaiting a solution to the Greek dilemma. Over the weekend markets are closed and investors and traders were not willing to leave big positions open, because we don’t know for sure what may happen with Greece. If no deal is reached tomorrow, Saturday, then they still have until Tuesday to come to an agreement. Therefore, we may still be on stand-by mode until next week.

Commodities trading with ActivTrades

Few brokers give you access to all types of markets like ActivTrades does. With ActivTrades we have access to currencies, stocks (CFDs), indices and even commodities. Trading commodities gives you the advantage of diversifying your portfolio and hedging among closely correlated instruments for advanced trading strategies. But you can also trade commodities in a simple way, just like trading any other instrument. Keep in mind that the technical analysis that we use in other markets can also be used in commodities. For a full list of the commodities available for trading with ActivTrades, please visit:

https://www.activtrades.co.uk/index.aspx?page=cfds_commodities_overview

At the site, you may also find a full list of margins and spreads on different commodities, which by the way are the most competitive in the market.

The EUR/GBP bounces from the 0.7100 level

Yesterday the Euro versus the Pound dropped to the 0.7100 level and it stopped at that round number level. Today we see that the price has bounced from that level to the upside, but the bearish trend is still in place on this pair. We are awaiting a possible breakout of the trendline, which could take the price to the 0.7200 level, but we cannot be so sure about a trend change until the price definitely breaks above the 0.7200 level. A breakout below the 0.7100 level could cause the bearish momentum to accelerate and its next support could be the 0.7000 level.

The Euro appears to be taking back its bearish trend

The Euro weakens for today versus the Dollar and it seems like it wants to retake its longer-term bearish trend, due to the fact that the markets are focusing again on the divergence between the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve of the United States and the European Central Bank. While the European stocks rise due to a possible agreement between Greece and its creditors, the Euro weakens as it is being used to finance the purchase of higher yielding currencies in a move known as the Carry Trade.

How low can the Kiwi drop?

The New Zealand Dollar continues weakening versus the US Dollar, especially on a day like today when the Dollar has been gaining a lot of strength versus its main counterparts. It is possible that the pair keeps its bearish trend, due to the fact that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is currently easing on its monetary policy while the FED is thinking about raising its interest rates for this year. The next important support for the NZD/USD could be the 0.6800 level. A visit to that level may cause the price to stall there, but we must keep in mind that the bearish trend is still in place.

Oil keeps consolidating

The consolidation that oil is keeping has formed what it appears to be a symmetrical triangle with the 56.44 as support and the 62.73 as resistance. Symmetrical triangles usually behave as continuation patterns, meaning that the price continues in the direction where it was coming from, but in reality the price may break out in any direction. The only inconvenience of a bullish breakout is that we have the 200 exponential moving average around the 63.61 level, which could act as a good resistance.

Risk appetite dampens on the Euro

The current situation with Greece keeps the risk appetite on the Euro very low and even though the Dollar should have fallen more versus the Euro, the uncertainty keeps the Euro down. The stock markets in Asia have been favored by the drop in the Dollar and the Nikkei index rises 0.9%. The US stock indices also closed to the upside yesterday. Apparently, investors and traders are pricing in one single interest rate hike from the FED and not two hikes as anticipated for this year.

The GBP/JPY reaches 7 year highs

The Pound continues to strengthen versus the Yen and it has reached highs not visited since September, 2008, just above the 195.00 level. The price stalls at the 195.00 zone, but the bullish momentum is still in place and a visit to the 196.00 level is possible. Due to the fact that the main trend is bullish, we could take advantage of the bearish pullbacks to take long entries, but we must be aware that the price may try to make a longer correction, because the pair is clearly overbought.

Possible breakout on the AUD/USD

The Australian Dollar versus the US Dollar has been consolidating just below its 55 day exponential moving average (purple line) without taking a clear direction. Inside the consolidation the price has formed a Symmetrical Triangle, which is a chart pattern from where the price may break out in any direction. If price breaks to the upside, then the 0.7900 could act as a good resistance. If price breaks to the downside, then the 0.7500 zone could prove to be a good support.

The GBP/JPY in a sustainable uptrend

The Pound versus the Yen keeps a sustainable uptrend on the daily chart, but it has now reached the round number level of the 193.00. It is possible for that level to become a good resistance, but the uptrend stays in place as long as the bullish trendline is not broken to the downside. A breakout of the 193.00 could cause the price to accelerate to the upside, but a pullback could give us the opportunity of a long entry.

The bearish trend is still in place for the Kiwi

The New Zealand Dollar continued dropping today versus the US Dollar, especially when the US fundamentals came out better than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its interest rates and said that it is ready to lower them even more if needed, while the Federal Reserve of the US is thinking of raising its interest rates. The divergence on the monetary policies between those two central banks is keeping the NZD/USD in a bearish trend.

Webinar on trading reversals with confidence

One of the hardest part of trading is to determine if the price is going to break a support or resistance or if it will reverse and bounce in the opposite direction. With the professional trader, Paul Wallace, you can learn how to identify and trade those turning points on the charts. To register for the event and other upcoming events that should be of great help to all kinds of traders, please visit:

https://www.activtrades.co.uk/index.aspx?page=events_webinar

Don’t miss this opportunity to expand your knowledge and gain an edge in trading. The webinar is absolutely free and it is Online.

Possible bullish trend starting on the EUR/USD

The MACD indicator on the daily chart of the EUR/USD is getting further apart from its signal line, red line, indicating that this could be the beginning of a bullish trend. However, the price is currently very undecided around the 1.1300 zone, from where it has not taken a clear direction yet. If the price continues going higher, then the 200 day exponential moving average, which is just below the 1.1600 level, could act as a resistance. To the downside, the 1.1100 level could act as a support, which coincides with the 55 day exponential moving average.

Possible Head and Shoulders pattern on the GBP/USD

On the daily chart of the Pound versus the Dollar we can see that the pair has been oscillating around the 200 period exponential moving average and it has formed what it appears to be a Head and Shoulders pattern. What we can do now is just wait for the price to break below the neckline and then the pullback to the same neckline for a possible short entry.

Reversal or just a pullback on the Kiwi?

The New Zealand Dollar has gained a lot of ground versus the US Dollar and broke above the 0.7100 level to visit its 55 period exponential moving average on the 4 hour chart, around the 0.7150 zone. The longer term trend on this pair is bearish and that makes us wonder if today’s rally on the Kiwi is just a normal retracement or pullback to continue going lower or if this is the start or a trend change. Since the downtrend is still in place, this could be a pullback and the price may try to bounce to the downside from the 55 EMA area. But if it goes back to the 0.7100 level, the round number may act as a temporary support.