200 pip rally and drop on the EUR/USD

The Euro versus the Dollar has been very volatile for today and on the 15 minute chart we can see that once the first fundamental from the US came out worse than expected, the pair rallied a little bit more than 100 pips from the 1.1000 level to the 1.1100 level, but once it got to the 1.1100 level, it bounces from that zone to the downside and it retraces the same 100 pips to the 1.1000 level. It is possible for the 1.1000 level to become a good support, but if for next week the US fundamentals come out better than expected, especially the Non-Farm Payrolls report, then the pair may continue dropping and the bearish momentum may accelerate. Beneath the 1.1000 level, the 1.0900 level could become its next support.

Bearish trend on the Kiwi seems to weaken

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar has had a good downtrend, well sustained, but after it touched the 0.6500 level it has gone sideways, forming a consolidation. The price has really been oscillating between the 0.6600 level and the 0.6700 level and even though on the daily chart it seems like the price has broken the bearish trendline, in reality what the price has done is go sideways. The 55 and the 200 day EMAs are still keeping a good separation between them, indicating that the bearish trend is still in place, none the less, in order to determine if the price has really gone back to its bearish trend, we must first see a breakdown below the 0.6500 level.

Gold: Will it get to the one thousand dollars per ounce?

Gold continues showing some weakness as the Dollar keeps strengthening, but there are also other factors that are affecting the price of the precious metal like an excess of gold reserves and low demand. At the moment, the 1071 level has served as a good support, but the actual consolidation could be just a resting zone for the price to continue going lower. An actual rate hike by the FED could cause the Dollar to continue rallying and gold to continue dropping. In such case, it is possible for gold to come and visit the one thousand dollars an ounce level. The 55 day EMA continues getting apart from the 200 day EMA, which indicates that the downtrend is still in place. Since markets never go down or up in a straight line, it is also possible to see a retracement to the 1131 level, which could act as support.

EUR/JPY: Possible breakout and pullback pattern

The Euro versus the Yen has not been able to break above the 137.00 level, but after the price broke above the 200 period exponential moving average on the 4 hour chart, around the 136.00 level, we can see that it is trying to retrace back to that same zone. It is possible that a breakout and pullback pattern gets completed, and if such event happens, then the price may return to the upside. A good example of a breakout and pullback pattern can be seen a few days back around the 135.00 level, where the price clearly breaks above the 135.00 to pull back to it and continue going higher. The bullish trend is still in place, even though the Stochastics are pointing to the downside, due to the retracement that the price is making at the moment.

The EUR/USD retraces to the 76.4% Fibo

The Fibonacci retracements that have the highest probability of becoming support or resistance are the 61.8% and the 76.4%. On the 4 hour chart of the EUR/USD we can see how the price retraces to the 76.4% Fibo and stalls at that area, which is just above the 1.1100 level. Today the price tried to break above that zone, but it couldn’t stay above that zone and comes back down below it. The bullish trend is still in place, but we could see a retracement to the 1.1000 level. Above the 1.1100 level, the 1.1200 could act as resistance. In case the price visits the 1.1200 level, then it would be completing a 100% parabolic retracement. It is called a “parabolic” retracement, because the price forms what it appears to be a “parabola”.

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USD/JPY: Consolidation around the 124.00 level

The Dollar versus the Yen has not been able to give confirmation of the breakout of the 124.00 level and it keeps oscillating around that round number level. The 55 period exponential moving average (purple line), around the 123.63 level has acted as a good support and the price bounces from that zone to the upside. If the price continues going higher, then the 125.00 level may act as a resistance, especially when the Bank of Japan has said that it will intervene if the USD/JPY touches the 125.00. Do the downside, the 200 period exponential moving average (blue line) may also act as a support, which is very close to the 123.00 round number level.

GBP/AUD: Possible breakout and pullback pattern

The Pound falls versus the Australian Dollar for today and breaks below the 200 period exponential moving average on the one hour chart (blue line) around the 2.0990 level. On the same one hour chart of the GBP/AUD we can see how the 2.0990 level acted as a good support in the past from where the price bounced to the upside. Now that the price has broken below that level, it is trying to pullback to the same moving average, which could become a good resistance for the pair. It is possible for the price to go back to its bearish trend after the pullback and continue dropping. The 2.0886 level may act as an initial support if there is a continuation to the downside.

Oil stays around the 50.00 level

After having consolidated for some days around the 52.00 level, the Light Crude Oil contract continued falling to the 50.00 level, but it has not been able to break that zone to the downside yet. None the less, the downtrend is still in place for oil and if it breaks that zone to the downside, then the commodity will practically have a clear road all the way to the 44.00 level, even though some pullbacks may show up on the way down. If the price goes back up or retraces to the upside, then it is possible that the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line) acts as a resistance or even the 58.00 level could also act as a resistance.

Gold completes 4 weeks to the downside

Gold is about to close another week to the downside as the Dollar continues to strengthen. Due to the fact that the precious metal is quoted in Dollars, when the Greenback rallies this causes the demand for gold to go down in the international markets and that is why these two instruments keep a negative correlation. After making a low around the 1131 level, gold may continue dropping and it doesn’t seem to have any more relevant supports until the 1041 level as we can see it on the weekly chart. On this same chart we can see that the 55 exponential moving average (purple line) continues separating from the 200 exponential moving average (blue line), showing us that the commodity may try to continue going lower on the long run.

EUR/USD: Possible continuation of the bearish trend

The Euro continues dropping versus the Dollar and as we can see on the daily chart, the MACD is showing us that there could be a continuation of the bearish trend. It is possible for the 1.0820 level to become a support for the pair, due to the fact that in the past it acted as a support, but if this Friday’s fundamentals out of the US come out better than expected and the inflation data shows that it is on the rise, then the Dollar may strengthen even more and the pair may break that level to the downside. Beneath the 1.0820 level its next support could be the 1.0500 level. If for some reason the price bounces to the upside from the 1.0820 level, then the 1.1100 zone could become a good resistance, because we can also see that the 55 day EMA is also crossing that area.

The NZD/USD keeps its bearish trend

The Dollar strengthen for today after the speech by Janet Yellen, president of the FED and we can see how the NZD/USD has come back to its bearish trend after it consolidated for about a week around the 0.6700 level. At this moment the price has come and visit the 0.6600 level and attempts to stall there. It is possible for the 0.6600 to become a temporary support for the pair, because the bearish trend is still in place. The 55 day exponential moving average (purple line) is getting farther and farther apart from the 200 day exponential moving average, indicating that the bearish momentum is really strong.

Good rally on the GBP/JPY

The Pound rally for today after the comments by The Bank of England governor, Carney. The Pound versus the Yen started the session by finding a good support around the 191.00 level and Monday’s low around the 190.78 level where it made a double bottom on the 15 minute chart. After the comments by Carney, the pair rallies and breaks above the 192.00 level where it complete a breakout and pullback pattern to continue going higher to the 193.00 level. The price is trying to bounce to the downside from the 193.00 level, but the bullish trend seems to be in place. In case of continuing lower, the 192.00 may act as a support. Above the 193.00 level, the 194.00 may act as its next resistance.

The EUR/USD falls back to the 1.1000 level

The Euro versus the Dollar keeps dropping due to the fact that now that the Greek dilemma is almost over, the traders and investors are focusing again on the future plans of the FED, even more when Janet Yellen said last week that an interest rate hike was possible for this year. The Dollar has become the focus of attention once again in the markets. The EUR/USD could not break above the 1.1200 level and drops to the 1.1000 level. On the one hour chart we can see that the price has done what it appears to be a breakout and pullback pattern on the 1.1000 level; therefore, it is possible that the bearish momentum stays in place and the 1.0900 level could become its next support.

Key week for Greece

The Greek novel is far from over, now that the Greek prime minister has sent to its creditors a new deal proposal, we have to wait if it is accepted by the European leaders and the Greek parliament. The new proposal drafted by the Greek government includes many of the very same austerity measures that the Greek People voted “No” to on last Sunday’s referendum. That is why we don’t know for sure if the Greek parliament will approve the deal. It is highly possible that the European leaders do approve the deal, because some say that it is basically the same deal that was presented to the Greeks on June 29^th. Investors and traders have preferred to stay on the sidelines until the Greek dilemma is resolved. That is why markets stay relatively calm towards the end of this Friday’s trading session.

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Incredible drop on the Pound versus the Yen

The Pound has been weakening versus most of its main counterparts, but today it accelerates its bearish momentum versus the Yen and it keeps breaking round number levels. So far the pair has fallen more than 400 pips during today’s session and reaches a low at the 185.00 level. When the market is trending strongly, the best thing to do is to wait for the pullbacks to enter in the direction of the main trend or impulse. The 185.00 level may act as support, but the bearish momentum is still in place and the price may try to break it and go visit its next round number support level at the 184.00.

Possible short entry on the EUR/JPY

The Euro has retraced quite well versus the Yen and it is reaching the 135.00 level from where it may try to bounce to the downside. It was expected to see a retracement on this pair, due to the fact that it was dropping rapidly since the beginning of today’s session. But once the price reached the 134.00 zone, it consolidated there for a while and formed an inverted Head-and-Shoulders pattern on the 15 minute chart. The pattern was completed perfectly and the price changes direction to the upside, now the 135.00 level may act as resistance.

Breakout and pullback on the GBP/USD

The Pound versus the Dollar has been very volatile since last week. At the beginning of today’s trading session the price started oscillating around Friday’s low at the 1.5562. The price finally gained some bullish momentum and broke above the 1.5600 level. On the one hour chart of the GBP/USD we can see that the price has retraced to the 1.5600 level, which is currently acting as a support. If the price bounces from that level to the upside, then the breakout and pullback pattern will be completed and the pair may try to rally to the 1.5643 level, which is Friday’s high.

The USD/CAD is not able to break above the 1.2600 level

The US Dollar tries to regain some ground versus the Canadian Dollar and it goes back up to the 1.2600, but it couldn’t break above that level. The Canadian Dollar has a positive correlation with oil, and because oil has been dropping, that’s why this pair has been rising. If the price of oil goes back up, then the pair may bounce from this zone to the downside and the 1.2421 or the 1.2400 could become a good support.

Important notice for ActivTrades clients

The uncertainty surrounding the negotiations with Greece still persist, because the Hellenic Republic has not been able to come to an agreement with its creditors. There is a referendum scheduled for this Sunday in Greece to have its people decide if they accept or not the terms imposed by the European Central Bank, The International Monetary Fund, and the European Commission. These three entities are Greece’s main creditors. The referendum on Sunday may cause a lot of volatility in the markets, especially on the Euro crosses and other instruments. That is why ActivTrades has decided to raise its margin requirements on certain trading instruments in order to protect its clients from adverse market reactions. The complete notice may be found at:

http://view.news.activtrades.info/?j=fec6167777610474&m=fe9112727164037477&ls=fe3315717d66077d721674&l=ff5a137772&s=fe551277766c0d757414&jb=ffcf14&ju=fe681570716100787615&r=0

FOREX: EURAUD EURCAD EURCHF EURGBP EURHUF EURJPY EURNOK EURNZD EURPLN EURSEK EURSGD EURTRY EURUSD

INDICES: Blg20Jul15 Bra50Aug15 Esp35Jul15 Euro50Sep15 Fra40Jul15 Ger30Sep15 GerTecSep15 HKIndJul15 Ind50Jul15 Ita40Sep15 Jp225Sep15 Neth25Jul15 Nor25Jul15 Swi20Sep15 UK100Sep15 Usa500Sep15 UsaIndSep15 UsaRusSep15 UsaTecSep15 UsaVixJul15 USDIndSep15

FINANCIALS EuBblSep15 EuBundSep15 EuStzSep15 UsaTBSep15 UsaTNSep15

METALS: Gold, Palladium, Platinum, and Silver. 

Possible hammer formation on the NZD/USD

The Kiwi versus the Greenback breaks below the 0.6700 level, but it couldn’t stay below that level and goes back up, leaving behind a relatively long lower shadow. We are on the Daily chart and if this Friday’s candle closes bullish, then it will confirm the hammer formation, which is a bullish reversal pattern. But a change in trend on the pair would not be confirmed until the price breaks above the trendline or above the 0.6900 level. 

The GBP/USD nears the 1.5600 level

The Pound versus the Dollar had been consolidating for the past few days between the 1.5700 level as support and the 1.5800 level as resistance. For today the Dollar strengthen versus its main counterparts and that is why we see a breakdown below the 1.5700 level and yesterday’s low. On the one hour chart of the GBP/USD we can see how the bearish momentum accelerated once the price broke below the 1.5700 level and it is currently trying to visit the 1.5600 level. If there is a visit to the 1.5600 level, then the price may try to stall there or even bunce to the upside, but if the Dollar keeps gaining ground, then the bearish trend may continue.