Oil continues its rally

Light crude oil continues correcting to the upside and breaks above the 47.00 level. Due to the strong rally that oil has made lately, it is possible to see a pullback to the downside in a profit taking move. However, the MACD indicator is showing us that the uptrend is still in place and it is very strong, therefore the price may try to go and visit the 57.00 level, which is very close to the 200 day exponential moving average, which could act as a resistance. If the price retraces to the downside, then the 44.00 level could act as support, followed by the 40.00 level.

USD/CHF: Oscillation around the 200 EMA on the 4 hour chart

The Dollar versus the Swiss Franc holds on to yesterday’s gains, but it stays oscillating around the 200 period exponential moving average on the 4 hour chart. It looks like price has formed a breakout and pullback pattern around that moving average and it is possible to see a bullish continuation next week. The bullish trend is still in place and if the price continues rallying, then the 0.9800 level could act as a resistance like it did in the past. However, if the price breaks below the 55 period exponential moving average, around the 0.9574, then the bearish momentum may accelerate and the pair may correct to the downside.

Platinum continues strengthening for today

Platinum has been rising along with other precious metals after the global markets started correcting to the upside, starting with the stock markets in New York and following with the Asian markets and the European markets. Even though the bullish momentum is still in place in platinum, we can see on the daily chart that the metal has not been able to stay above its 200 period exponential moving average, around the 1001 level. Its most recent high is around the 1007 and if it breaks that level to the upside, then the price may try to go and visit the high around the 1035 level. If the price returns to the downside, then the 987 level could act as support, but below that level, the double bottom around the 968 level could act as a better support.

EUR/USD: Possible bullish bounce from the 200 day EMA

The Euro versus the Dollar has retraced to the 200 day exponential moving average (blue line), around the 1.1334 level from where it is trying to stall at the moment. The bullish momentum is still in place in the pair and it is possible for the 200 EMA to act as support from where the price may bounce to the upside. If the price bounces to the upside, then the high around the 1.1708 level may act as resistance. But if the price breaks below the 200 EMA, then the pair may try to go and visit the 55 EMA (purple line), around the 1.1126 level, which could act as support.

The French CAC40 bounces from the 200 week EMA

The 200 period exponential moving average or EMA, usually acts as a very good support or resistance zone, especially on the higher time frames. On the weekly chart of the CAC40 we can see that yesterday the index dropped to the 200 EMA (blue line), around the 4226, but it stalls there and bounces to the upside. This is a good example of how that moving average can act as a good support or resistance zone. Even in the past, we can see that it has already acted as support for the index. The relatively long shadow that the weekly candle is leaving behind is telling us that there is a probability of the CAC40 to keep retracing some more to the upside for next week. If the index keeps retracing to the upside, then the 55 week EMA (purple line) may act as resistance.

The Dollar continues breaking historic highs versus the Mexican Peso

Emerging market currencies continue getting hurt by the risk aversion that has been created in the markets due to the incredible drop in Chinese stocks, which have translated into further drops in the global markets. The Mexican Peso is one of those currencies that has been dropping lately to all-time lows versus the US Dollar. The USD/MXN has reached a high around the 17.25 level, but if it continues rallying, then the 17.50 may act as a temporary resistance. Its closest support could be the 17.00 level, but below that zone we don’t seem to have any more relevant supports until the 16.50 level. Its 200 day exponential moving average is very far away from the current price levels, indicating that the bullish trend has been very strong. The stochastics indicator is above the 80% line and stays in the overbought zone due to the fact that the indicator cannot rise above the 100% line.

Copper remains weak

Copper is still under pressure due to the global drop in demand of the metal and the slowdown of the Chinese economy. Copper made a low around the 226.00 level and even though it has retraced to the upside towards the 233.00 level, it remains in a consolidation between those two levels. The stochastics indicator on the 4 hour chart is around the 50% level, due to the consolidation that the metal is currently having. If the price breaks above the 233.00 level, it may try to go and visit the 200 period exponential moving average around the 240.24 level on this 4 hour chart. Below the 226.00 level, its next support could be the 224.00 level.

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EUR/JPY: Moving average breakout on 1 hour chart

The Euro versus the Yen has gone back to the upside during today’s session and it has broken above the 200 and 55 period exponential moving averages on the one hour chart. At the moment the price has formed what it appears to be a “pennant” formation and it is possible to see a continuation to the upside towards the 138.00 level, which could act as resistance. The 200 and 55 EMAs are practically at the same level, but the 55 EMA is trying to cross below the 200 EMA. If the 55 EMA crosses below the 200 EMA, then the price may come back down and it may try to go and visit the 137.00 level, which could act as support for this pair.

Could corn continue dropping?

Corn has remained stable around the 365 level, but in reality it seems like it is at the end stage of a bullish pullback after the strong drop that it had to the 346 level. If the commodity continues retracing to the upside, then the 200 period exponential moving average on the daily chart (blue line), around the 384 level could act as resistance from where the price may try to stall or bounce to the downside. However, if the price breaks above that moving average, then the round number level at the 400 zone could act as a better resistance for corn. To the downside, the 346 level could act once again as support and so far the stochastics indicator is not showing a clear direction due to the consolidation that the price has been making lately.

The Canadian Dollar still in a range

The USD/CAD is still consolidated between the 1.3000 and the 1.3200 levels. Today the Canadian Dollar tried to weaken a little bit, due to a small drop in oil. But oil stays steady and has not continued with its bearish trend so far. That is why the USD/CAD has not taken a clear direction yet and remains consolidated. The longer term trend is still bullish on the pair and the current price is relatively far away from its 200 day exponential moving average, which is situated around the 1.2386 level. The stochastics indicator is around the 50% level, indicating us that there is no clear trend. A breakout above the 1.3200 level could take the price to the 1.3300 level and a breakdown below the 1.3000 level could take the price to the 1.2857 level, which is its latest low.

Possible Head and Shoulders on the NASDAQ

The NASDAQ index measures the movements on the main technology companies in the United States. The index has closed to the upside, but we can see on the 4 hour chart that it has found some resistance around the 4536 zone, where we can see very close to it the 55 and 200 period exponential moving averages. None the less, if the index breaks above that zone, there could be confirmation of a “Head and Shoulders” formation, which is a bullish reversal chart pattern. But if the index breaks below the 4498 level, then the pattern would be invalidated and the NASDAQ may try to go and visit the lows around the 4430 zone.

EUR/NZD: Possible bullish continuation

The Euro versus the New Zealand Dollar has had a very good uptrend since the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line) crossed above the 200 day exponential moving average (blue line). The separation between those two moving averages is telling us that the bullish trend may continue and even though yesterday’s daily candle formed a “Shooting Star” pattern, today’s candle has been bullish invalidating the “Shooting Star” pattern. The high at the 1.7075 level could act as resistance and to the downside we cannot be so sure about a bearish correction until the price breaks below the bullish trendline. However, if the price decides to drop, the 55 EMA around the 1.6381 could act as an initial support.

Sugar apparently stalls its drop

The commodity markets have been hurt lately by the situation in China and on the daily chart of sugar we can see that the sweet commodity has not been an exception. However, on the same daily chart we can see that the 10.35 has acted as a good support so far and the price stalls there. The last few daily candles have formed some “spinning tops” which indicate exhaustion of the downtrend, but with a lot of indecision. If the price retraces to the upside, then the 11.00 could become resistance or even the 11.60. To the downside, the 10.35 could continue acting as support, but the downtrend is still in place as shown by the MACD indicator. The 200 day exponential moving average is relative far away at the 13.20 level, indicating that probably it would take some time before we see a real change in direction to the upside.

The Brazilian Real stalls its fall versus the Dollar

The emerging markets currencies have been affected lately by the drop in commodity prices and the rally of the US Dollar. However, on the 4 hour chart of the USD/BRL we can see that the pair has found a good resistance around the 3.5619 level, which is indicating us that the Brazilian Real is starting to gain some ground versus the Dollar. The pullback has taken the pair to the 3.4236 low where it has try to go back up, but on the last 4 hour candle we can see that the bearish momentum seems to have come in again. If the pair breaks below the 3.4236 level, then the 200 period exponential moving average (blue line), around the 3.3005 level could become its next support. To the upside, the 3.5619 level could become resistance again if the pair visits that zone one more time. The MACD indicator is showing us that the downtrend is still in place, but the bars on the histogram are showing us that the downtrend is losing its strength.

Soy rallies and it is about to visit its 200 day EMA

The commodity markets have been under pressure during the past few weeks, but we see that today they seem to take a breather and soy rallies rapidly very close to its 200 day exponential moving average (blue line), around the 1012 level. That 200 day EMA may act as a resistance and the commodity may try to stall there or even bounce to the downside. However, if the rally continues and soy breaks above that level, it may try to go and visit the high around the 1053, which could act as a resistance like it did in the past. To the downside, the 936 zone could act as support where it made its latest low. Due to the strong rally that the commodity has made, the stochastics oscillator is entering the over-bought zone above the 80% level, but a pullback to the downside doesn’t seem to be near until the indicator drops below the 80% level.

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Silver stays consolidated, but keeps its bearish trend

Silver and gold have a very close positive correlation, which means that when gold drops, silver also drops and vice versa. The rally on the Dollar has been hurting the precious metals that quote in Dollars like gold and silver. That is why silver has kept a well-sustained bearish trend since the middle of May, as we can see on the daily chart. At the moment, silver has found a good support around the 14.35, which it has already visited two times and where the Fractals have shown possible bullish reversals, but the 15.00 level has acted as a good resistance and it has not allowed the price to show a real bullish correction yet. The Parabolic SAR points are relatively away from the current price and are pointing to the downside, indicating that the bearish trend is still in place regardless of the consolidation. However, if the price breaks above the 15.00 level, that could be an indication that the price is correcting to the upside, but if it breaks below the 14.35 level then the bearish momentum may come in again and the metal may try to continue with its downward trend.

British stock market finds some kind of resistance

The FTSE100 index from the United Kingdom has had a good uptrend, as we can see on the 4 hour chart, since it made its latest low at the 6436 level. At the moment, the index is at its 200 period exponential moving average on the same 4 hour chart, around the 6678, where it is trying to stall its rally. Even though the index has tried to break to the upside its 200 EMA, it has not been able to confirm such breakout. None the less, the bullish trend is still in place and if the UK fundamentals keep coming out positive, it is possible to see a breakout of the 6713 level. In case the index keeps heading higher, then the 6761 could act as resistance as it did in the past. The stochastic indicator (green line) has reached the 80% level, but it has crossed below its signal line (red line), indicating that there could be a correction to the downside, due to the fact that the index is over-extended to the upside.

The GBP/USD has been very volatile for today

The Pound versus the Dollar has been in a consolidation since last week between the 1.5560 zone as support and the 1.5678 zone as resistance. The round number level of the 1.5600 has served as a middle point in the consolidation from where the price has been oscillating up and down. On the one hour chart we can see that the volatility has been high, due to the relatively long real bodies on the candlesticks and long shadows in both directions. During this type of price action it is very difficult to trade due to the fact that the pair has not taken a clear direction. However, this high volatility periods could be useful for scalping trading, but it is also risky. To the upside, the 1.5700 level could act as resistance and to the downside the 1.5500 level could act as support.

Possible bearish continuation on Coffee

Coffee has been somewhat volatile for today, but there have been some trading opportunities around key levels on the 30 minute chart. At the beginning of the session, the price of coffee falls to the 121.50 level and rallies from that level to the 200 period exponential moving average (blue line) on this very same 30 minute chart, around the 124.94 level. Even though the price did not touch exactly the 200 EMA, we can see how it bounces back to the downside and it seems to continue with its bearish trend. The Stochastics are showing us that the bullish momentum seems to be losing strength and they are trying to head back to the downside. If the price continues falling, then it is possible for the 121.50 to become support again. But if it breaks the 121.50 to the downside, then the 119.60 zone may also become a good support for the commodity. If the price breaks above the 200 EMA, then its latest high around the 127.42 level could become resistance.