Season's Greetings

Season's Greetings and a Happy New Year to all of you. I will be back with the market analysis in January. Thank you for your support during this whole year.

WTI oil enters a congestion area

WTI oil rallies for today after Kuwait agreed to cut their production much lower than previously agreed at the last OPEC and non-OPEC meeting. If other producers jump in the wagon and also agreed to make further cuts, then oil may go back to the 54.50 level. On the daily chart of WTI oil we can see that the commodity has found a good support at the 50.00 level from where it has bounce twice on this chart. If for some reason oil drops below the 50.00 level, then it may reach the 48.00 level or the 200 day EMA, which is around the 46.42 level.

Three month rally on the USD/JPY

On the monthly chart of the USD/JPY we can see that during the last three months the pair has been rising and reaches a high around the 118.64 level. The bullish trend is still in place and there could be a breakout of the 118.64 level in January. If the price breaks above the 118.64 level, it may stay consolidated between that level and the 125.79 level during the first few months of 2017. To the downside, the 114.00 level could act as a support along with the 109.00 level. The future plans of the FED for next year could keep the pair strong, but there could also be some mention of intervention by the Bank of Japan, since a weaker Yen may not be in the best interest of the rising sun country.

New ceiling for the dollar index

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus six of its major counterparts, has risen rapidly during this Wednesday’s session after the Federal Reserve of the United States raised its interest rates by 0.25% to leave them at 0.75%. According to most analysts, the rate hake was already priced in to the markets before the announcement; none the less, the dollar index managed to rally and made another higher high at the 102.34 level. On the daily chart we can see that the index has formed what it appears to be a broadening wedge or a flag with a bullish breakout. If the index retraces to the downside, then the 100.00 level could act as support. The zone between the 99.00 level and the 99.47 level could also act as support.

And we were right

A few weeks ago we identified on the daily chart of the USD/JPY a “Golden Cross”, which involves the crossing of the 55 day EMA, purple line, above the 200 day EMA, blue line. The golden cross usually has bullish implications for the instrument in the long run and that is why we have seen the USD/JPY making higher highs. The bullish trend is still in place and the angle of inclination of the 55 day EMA is telling us that the trend is still strong. If the pair breaks above the 116.12 level, then it may try to go and visit the 117.00 zone. To the downside, the pair may try to retrace back, but the 114.00 level may act as its first support. Below that level, the USD/JPY may just go and visit the 111.00 area.

The Dow Jones hits another all-time high

The Dow Jones Industrial Index just keeps going higher, breaking new record highs. On Monday the index rises 0.20% and reaches the 19811 zone. If the rally continues, the Dow may try to reach the 20000 level. So far the post-election rally is extending and there could be further surprises towards the end of the year and maybe next year. But the index is clearly over-extended to the upside and it could be ready for a bearish correction. To the downside, the 19278 level may act as support, since around that zone the index tried to consolidate. Also, the 18771 level may also act as support since at that level we can see the 55 day EMA. But something really amazing has to happen in order for the Dow to drop that far down in the short term.

Pullback on the Pound to the 55 day EMA

The GBPUSD is still struggling to break the 55 day EMA to the downside, it is forming what it appears to be a breakout and pullback pattern on that zone. For the pattern to be completed, the price must bounce to the upside. If the pair bounces to the upside, then the 1.2800 level may act as resistance. Above the 1.2800 level, the 1.3000 may also act as resistance. The bullish trend is still in place; therefore, there is a good probability for the GBPUSD to continue going higher. Below the 55 day EMA, its next support level could be the 1.2300 or the 1.2200 level.

Excellent Webinars to end the year

During the month of December, ActivTrades is offering excellent Webinars to sharpen our trading skills and get us ready for the New Year. Malte Kaub, a great professional of the financial markets will be conducting the last two Webinars of the year, all free of cost and online, so that anyone that registers from anywhere in the world will be able to attend. On December 22^nd the topic will be on trading volume and how to adjust to it. On December 29^th, Mr. Kaub will be giving us different tips and advice on how to make the next year a profitable one. To register for the upcoming events, please visit the link below:

https://www.activtrades.com/en/webinars

Don’t miss this great opportunity to learn more from the professionals. 

The USD/CAD visits its 200 day EMA

The 200 day EMA usually acts as a good support or resistance zone, especially when there is a round number level close to it. On the daily chart of the USD/CAD we can see that the 200 day EMA is right on the 1.3200 level and the price of the pair is practically at that same zone. Even though the bearish trend is still in place, the 200 day EMA may act as a support from where the price may try to bounce to the upside. If the pair bounces to the upside, then the 1.3300 level may act as resistance. If the pair breaks below the 1.3200 level, then it may try to go and visit the 1.3100 level from where it may try to stall. Another scenario that may develop is that the pair may consolidate and go sideways oscillating around the 1.3200 zone.

Sugar struggles with the 19.00 level

On the daily chart of the March contract of sugar, we can see that the commodity has had a very good bearish trend during the past few months, but once it got to the 19.00 level, it stalls there and tries to pull back up. Around the 19.00 level we can also see the 200 day EMA, which could have also contributed for the instrument to stall there. Usually, the 200 period EMA acts as a good support or resistance zone. But the bearish trend is still in place and the price of sugar may try to break below the 200 day EMA. If it breaks to the downside, then the 18.00 level or the 17.00 level could act as support. On the other hand, the stochastics are in the over-sold area, indicating that the instrument may be ready for a bullish correction. To the upside, the 20.00 level may act as resistance, followed by the 21.00 level or the 22.57 level.

USD/JPY: Possible trend reversal

The Dollar versus the Yen has been rising steadily, but once it got to the 114.87 zone, it lost its bullish momentum. The pair has already visited the 114.87 level twice, as shown on the daily chart. If the prices bounces from the current levels to the downside, then a double top pattern may develop. The double top pattern is a bearish reversal pattern; therefore, the USD/JPY may change direction to the downside. The MACD indicator is also showing us a possible trend reversal, but it is too early, though to call a trend change. To the downside, the 111.28 level may act as a support along with the 200 day EMA, which is much lower around the 107.00 zone.

EUR/JPY: Bullish trend is still in place

The Euro versus the Yen has had a very good rally as shown on the daily chart. Once it got to the 122.00 zone, it retraces to the downside. The 119.00 zone has been a very good support, where the pair has already bounced to the upside a couple of times. A breakout above the 120.00 level could take the pair to the highs around the 122.00 level. At the 118.00 level we can see the 200 day EMA, blue line, which could contribute to making that zone a good support area. The 117.00 level could also act as a support.

Oil: Possible pullback

On the daily chart of WTI oil we can see that the black gold is stalling its rally momentarily around the 51.60 level. The bullish trend is still in place and oil may try to continue going higher, but since it is over-extended to the upside, the commodity may be due for a retracement or pullback to the downside. The 50.00 level may act as a support, but below that level, the 48.00 and the 46.00 may also act as support. Around the 46.00 level we can see the 200 day EMA, which could contribute to making that level a good support. To the upside, if the rally continues and oil breaks above the 51.60 level, then its next resistance could be the 53.50 level.

Corn stays consolidated

The March contract of corn has been consolidating between the 334.74 level and the 361.38 level. The 200 day exponential moving average has been acting as a resistance, even though in one occasion the price of corn broke above that level. There could be trading opportunities inside the range, but it is risky due to the fact that the price may break in any direction. The stochastics are coming close to the over-sold zone; therefore, the price may try to go and visit the 334.74. To the downside, the 320.00 level may act as its next support. To the upside, the 361.38 level may act as its next resistance if the price visits that level again.

GBP/JPY: Breaks 200 day EMA

The Pound versus the Yen has kept a very good bullish trend during the last few weeks as shown on the daily chart and breaks above the 200 day exponential moving average or 200 day EMA, which is currently around the 141.23 level. After breaking above the 200 day EMA, the pair makes a high around the 145.22 level where it stalls and tries to pull back. In case of a pullback, the pair may touch the 200 day EMA again and complete a breakout and pullback pattern. But if it breaks below the 200 day EMA, then the 137.00 level could act as support. Below the 137.00 level, its next support could be the 131.00 level. The stochastics are consolidating at the over-bought zone, because while the price may continue rallying, the indicator is not able to break above the 100% level, therefore it just goes sideways.

Death cross on gold

A few days ago we identified on the daily chart of gold that there could be a death cross in the coming days. A death cross is when the 55 day exponential moving average crosses below the 200 day exponential moving average with bearish implications in the longer term. Today we can see that the death cross has been confirmed, even though the price of gold has retraced to the upside. From the 1200.00 level, gold may bounce back down and continue with its bearish trend. If gold breaks below the 1170.90 level, then it may try to go and visit the 1100.00 level. On the other hand, gold may try to pull back a little bit higher and it if does, then it may try to visit the 1241.45 zone, which could act as resistance.

Good pullback on oil

WTI oil has made a good pullback to the 46.00 level as shown on the daily chart. Just below the 46.00 level we can see the 200 day exponential moving average, blue line, which may contribute along with the 46.00 level to prevent the price of oil to drop below it. Therefore, we could see a bounce to the upside. If the price bounces to the upside, then it may find resistance again at the 48.00 zone as it did recently. If the price continues rallying above the 48.00 level, then its next resistances could be the 50.00 level or the high at the 51.60. On the other hand, the price may also break below the 46.00 level and maybe try to visit the 44.00 or the 42.00 levels.

ActivTrades Event Follow Up: Tools & Trading Setups

There is always something new to learn from the markets and the proper training and education is needed to achieve success in trading. ActivTrades has always been providing the right tools to its clients so that they can be the most successful in the markets. On November 24^th, Paul Wallace will be following up on different trading tools and trading setups. On December 1^st, Malte Kaub will be conducting an excellent Webinar on Forex and Indices. To register for the upcoming events, just visit the following link:

https://www.activtrades.co.uk/webinars

GBP/JPY: Visits the 200 day EMA

The 200 day exponential moving average or EMA usually acts as a good support or resistance zone. On the daily chart of the GBP/JPY we can see that the pair has reached its 200 day EMA, blue line, around the 141.19 level. The rally has been really steep; therefore, from the current level the pair may bounce to the downside and probably correct to the 139.00 level. A longer correction could take the pair to the 135.00 level. The bullish trend is still in place and that is why we could see a breakout of the 200 day EMA, which could take the pair to the 150.00 zone.

GBP/USD: Boxed between the 1.2300 & 1.2600

The Pound versus the Dollar consolidates between the 1.2300 level and the 1.2600 level, forming what it appears to be a symmetrical triangle. From this area the price may head in any direction, but we must keep in mind that in the longer term the bearish trend is still in place. A breakdown below the 1.2300 level could take the pair to the 1.2200 or the 1.2000 levels. To the upside, above the 1.2600 level, its next resistances could be the 1.2800 level or the 1.300 level.

EUR/USD: Nears the 1.0500 level

The Euro versus the Dollar has been dropping steadily during the last few weeks and reaches the 1.0521 level as shown on the daily chart. The bearish momentum has been strong, but at the current levels, the pair may try to pull back or retrace to the upside. The 1.0500 zone may act as support, but if the pair continues dropping, probably after a small retracement, then it may visit the 1.0400 level. To the upside, the next resistance zones could be the 1.0600 level, followed by the 1.0700 level.

The weakness in the Euro

The Euro versus the Dollar continues dropping and remains weak, but the over-extended current nature of the pair may cause a bullish pullback or correction from current levels. On the weekly chart of the EUR/USD we can see that the pair has been dropping for the last two weeks and breaks below the 1.0600 level. The next support in sight is the 1.0521 level, but we can round it off to the 1.0500 level. If for some reason the pair breaks below the 1.0500 level, then it may try to go and reach the 1.0000 level, which is really parity for the EUR/USD. If the upcoming US fundamentals keep coming out better than expected, then the EUR/USD may continue falling.

GBP/JPY: Goes back up

The Pound versus the Yen is a pair that it is usually very volatile with big swings. During that last few days the pair has kept a good bullish trend, but consolidates around the 135.00 level. Today we can see that the bullish momentum comes in again and the pair rallies. If it continues going higher, then the 139.00 level may act as its next resistance. Below the 135.00 level, the next supports in sight are the 132.00 level or the 55 day EMA, purple line. The lows on the chart at the 126.69 level and the 124.85 level may also act as support.

EUR/GBP: Possible bearish continuation

The Euro versus the Pound has had a good bearish trend and the momentum seems to accelerate once the pair broke below the 0.8600 level. The Euro weakens versus most of its major counterparts, therefore, it is possible for the pair to continue falling towards the 200 day EMA, blue line, which is currently around the 0.8389 zone. Attention to a visit to the 200 day EMA, because the pair may try to bounce from there to the upside, providing a possible long entry. But if the pair breaks below the 200 day EMA, then the breakdown may also provide an entry to the downside. To the upside, the 55 day EMA, purple line, may act as resistance. Above the 55 day EMA, the next resistance could be the 0.9000 level.

USD/JPY: Possible resistance on the 109.00 level

The USD/JPY has been rallying steadily and it reaches the 109.00 level where it stalls at the moment as shown on the daily chart. The 109.00 level may act as resistance and the price may try to bounce to the downside from there, in such case, a return to the 106.16 level is possible. The bullish trend is still in place and if the price continues going higher, then the price may reach the 111.00 level or even the 112.00 level. For now we are waiting to see if the risk appetite continues and the Dollar continues rallying versus the Yen.

Consolidation on gold may be a resting point

The drop on gold has stopped momentarily around the 1219.11 zone as shown on the daily chart of the precious metal and for the last few days it consolidates there. The consolidation may act as a resting zone, from where the price may continue falling. A visit to the 1200.00 level may happen in the coming days. The 1200.00 level may act again as support. To the upside there are a few important levels that may act as resistance, but in reality, the price of gold may stay consolidated in the longer term between the 1200.00 level and the 1300.00 level. The most important supports are the 1241.45 level, the 200 day EMA and obviously, the 1300.00 level.

Will gold continue falling?

Since gold is a safe-haven instrument, during the last presidential elections in the US, the commodity had very high volatility. But the risk aversion left the markets and gold dropped, pressured by the rally in the Dollar. Once the price of gold broke below its 200 day EMA, blue line, around the 1270.66, the bearish momentum accelerates and gold visits the low at the 1241.45 level. The 1241.45 level had acted as a support in the past, but the drop in gold was so strong that it also broke that level to reach the 1219.11 level. The bearish trend may continue and gold may visit the 1200.00 level. To the upside the most important resistances could be the 200 EMA, the 1300.00 level and the high at the 1337.04 level.

Webinars: Working with Stop Losses and Take Profits

Great events, great Webinars during this month of November by ActivTrades. Paul Wallace will be conducting an interesting event on Thursday, November 10 on how to use the stop loss and take profit orders properly. To register for this and the upcoming Webinars, just follow the link below:

https://www.activtrades.co.uk/webinars

On November 17^th, Paul Wallace will also be with us to explain the different types of traders that there are. Some are pullback traders, but some are breakout traders. Another great topic to take advantage of. Don’t miss this great opportunity to expand your trading knowledge.

EUR/USD: Trump’s volatility

The EUR/USD has shown high volatility during the US presidential elections. On the daily chart of the pair we can see a big spike that reaches the 1.1300 level. That high was created when it was getting clear that Donald Trump was going to win the elections. But the market seems to have gotten ahead of itself and the price dropped back down to the 1.0900 level. By the way, the 1.0900 level has been acting as a support, but a breakdown of that zone could take the pair to the 1.0800. The range of the EUR/USD was 400 pips on yesterday’s candle, causing the 1.1300 level to be the most important resistance so far. If the volatility dries up, then the price may fluctuate between the 1.0900 level and the 1.1100 level for a while.

Oil continues falling

On the daily chart of WTI oil we can see a huge drop from the 51.60 area to the 44.00 zone. At the 44.00 zone, oil tried to jump to the upside, but it couldn’t keep the bullish momentum, coming close to the 200 day exponential moving average. Another visit to the 44.00 level may cause the price of oil to stall its fall there, but the bearish trend is still in place and it may break it to the downside. A breakdown of the 44.00 level may take oil to the 42.00 level, but we can see on the chart that the most important support so far has been the 40.00 level.

USD/CAD: Bounces from the 1.3300 level

The USD/CAD rallied last week towards the 1.3450 zone, but it pulls back from that area to the 1.3300 zone as shown on the daily chart. From this level the pair may try to bounce to the upside, since the 1.3300 could act as a support. A bullish bounce of the USD/CAD from the 1.3300 level, may take the pair to the 1.3400 zone or the 1.3500. But if the price breaks below the 1.3300 level, then it may drop to the 1.3200 where it may find a temporary support, because below that level we can see the 200 day exponential moving average, blue line, around the 1.3138 level and which could act as a better support. Below the 200 day EMA, the next important support area is the 1.3000 zone.

Two weeks off, vacation

I would like to let you all know that I will be taking a two week recess and will be back with the blogs on November 7^th. Thank you all.

Is the Dollar ready for a correction?

The Dollar index has been rallying for the last three weeks as shown on the weekly chart. The Dollar has been supported by the probability of seeing an interest rate hike by December. The strong rally on the Dollar has taken it to over-bought territory and it is possible to see a bearish bounce from the current level. The 95.59 zone has acted as resistance in the past and it could act once again as resistance. But a breakout above the 98.59 level could take the index to the 99.88 level or the high above the 100.62 level. To the downside, the first support of the index is the 98.00 level, from there the next support is the 55 day exponential moving average, around the 95.85 level. The last supports levels are the 94.00, the 93.00 and the 91.88 level.

The Dollar index stays bullish

On the daily chart of the Dollar index we can see that the instrument had a good rally from the 95.70 zone to the 98.00 zone. During the past few days, the index was consolidating around the 98.00 zone, but today it breaks to the upside and it could continue going higher, especially when we see a “golden cross” on the moving averages. The golden cross is when the 55 day exponential moving average, purple line, crosses above the 200 day exponential moving average, blue line. The golden cross has bullish implications; therefore, the index may try to reach the 98.59 level, which could act as resistance. The index is clearly over-extended to the upside and it could try to retrace to the downside. If the index retraces to the downside, then its next support could be the 97.00 level.

Possible “hammer” on the USD/CAD

The “hammer” formation is a bullish reversal pattern where the candle has a long lower shadow with a small real body on the upper zone of the candle. The long lower shadow is the key on this pattern, because it tells us that at some point the sellers where having control of the instrument and brought the price down. However, the buyers took control of the instrument and brought the price back up, leaving behind the long lower shadow. On the daily chart of the USD/CAD we can see that Wednesday’s candle has the hammer formation. If this Thursday’s candle closes with a bullish candle, then the hammer formation will be confirmed and the price may change in the direction to the upside. If the price continues going higher, then the next resistance could be the 1.3200 level, followed by the 1.3300 level. To the downside, below the 200 day EMA, blue line, its next supports could be the 1.3047 level or the 1.3000 level.

Well defined range on gold

Gold has formed a very good horizontal channel as shown on the daily chart, with the 1250.00 level as support and the 1269 level as resistance. Range trading could be tricky since the price could break out in any direction in any moment. That is why the most conservative option is to wait for the breakout and then the pullback to enter in the direction of the original breakout. Below the 1250 level, its next support is still the 1200.00 level. Above the 1269 level where we can see the 200 day exponential moving average, its next resistance could be the 1300.00 level, especially when the 55 day EMA is right at that level now. The retracement on the Dollar has a lot to do with the rally on gold, but we need a really good reason for the precious metal to break above the 1269 level.

The USD/CAD visits the 1.3100 level

On the daily chart of the USD/CAD we can see that the pair has dropped once again to the 1.3100 zone. Just below the 1.3100 level we can also see the 200 day exponential moving average, blue line, which may contribute another support on that zone. The pair may try to bounce to the upside and if so, then the 1.3200 level may act as its next resistance. But a breakdown of the 200 EMA may accelerate the bearish momentum and the price may even visit the 1.3000 level. All depends if oil keeps rallying, which at the moment is just consolidating between the 50 and 51.60 levels.

Possible pullback on the Kiwi

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar is trying to bounce to the upside from the 200 day exponential moving average as shown on the daily chart. The 200 EMA usually acts as a support or resistance zone, therefore we could see a bullish pullback on the pair, especially when the instrument is clearly over-extended to the downside. In case the price breaks to the downside, its next support could be the 0.7000 level. To the upside, we can see that there are no clear resistances, but any of the highs of the candles could act as resistance. Although, the most important resistance could be the 200 week exponential moving average, around the 0.7382 level.

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Euro, three days in free fall

On the daily chart of the EUR/USD we can see that the price has been dropping from the 1.1200 level during the last three days and it is reaching the 1.1000 level, completing a 200 pip drop. The price may try to stall or bounce back to the upside from the 1.1000 level, but if it does, then the 1.1100 level could act as resistance. Above the 1.1100 level, the price may be returning to the congestion area around the 1.1200 level. We must keep in mind that the bearish trend is still in place and the price may break below the 1.1000 level. In case the price breaks below the 1.1000 level, then it may try to go and visit the 1.0952 level.

Key point on oil

WTI Oil has been rising steadily and on the daily chart we can see that it has made a high around the 51.60 level from where it bounces to the downside. Today the price of oil reaches the 50.00 level, which could act as support due to the fact that it has acted as resistance in the past. The bullish trend is still in place, especially when the 55 day EMA, purple line is pointing up and it is separating from the 200 day EMA, blue line. The 51.60 could still act as resistance if the price keeps rising, but if oil breaks below the 50.00 level, then it may try to reach the 48.00 level. The 55 day EMA may also act as support if the price drops to that zone.

Explosive rally on oil

WTI oil has broken once again above the 50.00 level, but with a lot more strength, after Russia said that it agrees with OPEC’s plan to freeze oil production. The news has caused oil to rally to the 51.60 zone as shown on the daily chart. The price of oil may try to stall at the 51.60 zone, but the bullish momentum is still in place. Above the 51.60 level, it next resistance could be the 53.00 level. To the downside, in case the price retraces, the 50.00 level could act as its first support, but it may try to break it to reach the 48.00 level, which could act as a better support. The commodity is over-extended to the upside and that is why it is vulnerable to a bearish correction.

Gold: Breakout-pullback pattern

The breakout and pullback pattern is when the price of an asset breaks a support or resistance and pulls back to it, but then it continues in the direction of the original breakout. The pattern gives the opportunity for new traders to come into the market. On the daily chart of gold we can see that the price has broken below the 200 day EMA, blue line, and now it is pulling back to the 200 EMA. If the price reaches the 200 EMA, then it may bounce to the downside and even try to break below the 1250 level. Below the 1250 level, its next support could be the 1200 level. If for any reason the price breaks above the 200 EMA, then the 1300 level could act as its next resistance.

Gold still bearish

Gold continues dropping and it has reached the 1250 level as shown on the daily chart, where it may try to bounce to the upside. If the price bounces to the upside and reaches the 200 day exponential moving average, then a breakout and pullback may be completed and a short entry may be possible. If the price breaks above the 200 day EMA, then the 1300 level may still act as a resistance. On the other hand, if the Dollar continues rising, especially if the NFP numbers come out better than expected, then the precious metal may continue dropping and break below the 1250 level. The next support level below the 1250 level is the 1200 level.

Corn stalls its rally

Corn on the daily chart has kept a good rally and it is showing a trend change, but after it broke above the 340.00 level and the 55 day exponential moving average it stalls at the 346.00 zone during the last few days. The bullish trend is still in place and the price of corn may try to continue going higher. If it continues going higher, then the 200 day exponential moving average around the 358.57 level could act as its first resistance. Above the 200 day EMA, its next resistance is at the 383.88 level. To the downside, the first support is the 340.00 level, but below that level, the 325.00 level could also act as support. The low at the 312.17 level is its most relevant support so far on the daily chart.

The rally of the USD/JPY

The USD/JPY rallies for today from the 102 zone to the 103 level. Currently, the 103.00 level is acting as resistance and the price may try to bounce to the downside. But if risk appetite keeps rising in the markets, then the pair may break above the 103.00 level and try to visit the 104.00 zone, which has acted as resistance in the past. If the pair bounces to the downside, then the 102.00 level along with the 55 day EMA, purple line, could act as support and the price would stay inside the descending triangle pattern, where the 100.00 zone is the most important support.

Gold drops

On the daily chart of gold we can see that today it suffered one of its most profound drop in recent time. Gold actually dropped 3% after the better than expected fundamentals from the US made the Dollar rally along with risk appetite in the markets. Since gold and the Dollar have a negative correlation, when the Dollar rises, gold drops. On the chart we can also see that the price has dropped to the 200 day EMA around the 1269 level, which coincides with the 200 week EMA, no wonder it stalls there momentarily. From this point the price may bounce to the upside, but the 1300 level could act as resistance.

The Euro recovers its ground

The Euro versus the Dollar has recovered from the drop that it suffered at the beginning of today’s session, after it was known that the fine that Deutsche Bank will receive is much lower than expected. The shares of the German bank rallied immediately after the rumor along with the single currency. On the one hour chart of the EUR/USD we can see that the pair dropped to a low around the 1.1150 level, but then it went back up above the 1.1200 level to reach Thursday’s high, around the 1.1249 level. The price has formed what it appears to be an ascending triangle or pennant, which could give us a bullish breakout. In case the pair continues higher, its next resistance could be the 1.1300 level. To the downside, the 1.1200 level could act as support again if the price drops to that level.

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