Consolidation on the USD/CHF

The USD/CHF has broken above the 0.9800 level on several occasions, but it has not been able to stay above that level and goes back down. On the daily chart we can see that the pair has been oscillating around the 200 day exponential moving average without taking a clear direction. To the downside, the 0.9700 level or the 0.9600 level may act as support. To the upside, the zone of the 0.9900 level has acted as resistance in the past and another visit of the price to that zone, may cause it to act as resistance once again. 

Good pullback on the EUR/JPY

We already know of the fast drop that the EUR/JPY suffered to the 109.37 level during the Brexit events. After that low, the price bounces to the upside and it has retraced to the 114.82 level as shown on the daily chart. The 114.82 level may possibly act as resistance and the price may go back down from there. However, if the price continues rallying, then the 116.00 level may also act as resistance. The most important support at the moment continues being the low at the 109.37 level.

Breakout-pullback pattern on soy

On the weekly chart of soy, August contract, we can see that price first breaks above the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 1113 and makes a high on the 1207. After the high on the 1207 level, the price goes back down to find support on the same 200 day EMA area. From that moving average the price bounces back up, completing what it is known as a breakout-pullback pattern. The price may continue rallying and it may visit once again the 1207 level. To the downside, the same 200 day EMA may act as support if price drops back down.

End of the pullback on the USD/JPY?

The USD/JPY retraces to the upside after it broke momentarily below the 100.00 level. It is possible for the 103.00 level to act as resistance and the pullback may end there to bounce back down. If the prices bounces to the downside from the 100.00 level, then that zone may act once again as support. The 100.00 level has been a zone where the Bank of Japan has intervened before; therefore, during another visit of the price to that level, the Bank of Japan may intervene again. To the upside, if the price breaks above the 103.00 level, then the 104.00 could also act as a resistance, due to the fact that the same zone has acted as support in the past as shown on the daily chart.

The USD/CAD could go back down

On the daily chart of the USD/CAD we can see that the price has formed what it appears to be a double bottom formation with the 1.2655 level as support. The neckline or confirmation line of the pattern is around the 1.3100 level, along with the 200 day exponential moving average. A breakout above the 1.3100 area, could take the price to the 1.3200 level, which could act as resistance. To the downside, the price may get boxed at the 1.3000 level, with the 1.3100 as resistance. But below the 1.3000 level, the 1.2900 may act as support. In the longer term we can see on this same chart that the most important support is the 1.2500 level.

The BREXIT referendum day

The day finally come and every trader and market participant is on their toes, awaiting the final results of the UK referendum. The markets have rallied before the vote is out, because the “Stay” vote has taken the lead on the recent polls. ActivTrades has created a special event for today regarding the Brexit situation, given by Paul Wallace. But even if you missed today’s Webinar, we invite you to register for the upcoming events by ActivTrades at the following link:

https://www.activtrades.co.uk/index.aspx?page=events_webinar

On June 30^Th Paul Wallace will go deeper into market analysis and on July 7^th, Malte Kaubb will be conducting a live trading analysis. Don’t miss it.

Possible end of a pullback on the GBP/JPY

On the daily chart of the GBP/JPY we can see how the pair fell from the 163.87 to the 146.00. Once the price touched the 146.00 level, it bounces to the upside and retraces very close to the 55 day exponential moving average, purple line, around the 155.91. That level around the 55 day EMA may act as resistance and the pullback may end around this zone. The price may bounce to the downside and in such case, the first support that it could find is the 151.64. The low at the 146.00 zone could also become support if the price reaches that area. Above the 55 day EMA there are no visible or relevant resistances until the high at the 163.87 level.

Cotton could go back down

On the daily chart of cotton we can see that the commodity has been oscillating in a well-defined range between the 200 day exponential moving average, blue line, as support, around the 62.10 and the high around the 66.34 as resistance. After the recent pullback to the upside, we see that the price of cotton goes back down. It looks like the price wants to visit again the 200 day EMA. If the price breaks below the 200 day EMA, then its next support could be the 60.00 or the 57.00 in the longer-term. To the upside, the 66.34 could continue acting as resistance.

Silver stalls at the 76.4% Fibo

Silver retraces on the daily chart to the 76.4% Fibo zone of the fall from the 18.00 level to the 16.00 level. The price broke above the 76.4% Fibo momentarily, but then it goes back down to the 61.8% Fibo. On this same chart we can see how the 61.8% Fibo has acted as a support and how the 76.4% Fibo has acted as a resistance. There is no clear direction on Silver until it breaks the 76.4% to the upside or the 61.8% to the downside. In the mid-term, the 18.00 level continues as its most important resistance and the 16.00 as support. Below the 16.00 level we can also see the 200 day EMA, which could also contribute for that area to become a good support.

Gold tries to go back up

Yesterday gold completed a parabolic retracement of 100% to the zone of the 1300 level. Even though gold broke above the 1300 level, it made a high around the 1315 level, but it couldn’t stay above that level and drops back down. However, today gold goes back up and visits again the 1300 level. If the price breaks again above the 1300 level, then the high at the 1315 could act as resistance. The question now is if gold would be able to break above the 1300 level or bounce back down. To the downside, the 1255 level could act as support, which is where the 200 week EMA is situated at.

Volatility rises on the Pound

The GBP/USD continues with high volatility due to all that has happened in the UK and what is about to happen. During this Thursday the pair was very volatile, but it does not take a clear direction on the daily chart and closes around the 1.4200 level. During this Friday, the GBP/USD rises and gets close to the 1.4400 level, where we can also see the 55 day exponential moving average, purple line. From the current levels, the Pound could come out in any direction and even though it has moved almost 400 pips in both directions, it has not taken a clear trend. To the downside, the 1.4000 level could continue acting as support.

The FED stays on hold

The Federal Reserve has decided to keep its interest rates at current levels and are waiting for more signs of growth in the US economy. The FED has used the word “gradual” when referring to the rate at which interest rates may rise in the future. The Dollar drops on the news, but it may hold to its recent bullish trend. The Pound was very volatile when the announcement came out, but it has taken a clear direction. The FED failed to mention anything about Brexit. But it is implied that the FED doesn’t want to create more volatility now in the markets until after the Brexit issue is out of the way. For now the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD have not taken a clear direction.

Soy prepares to pull back

Soy has kept a good bullish trend as shown on the weekly chart to the left, but after it broke above the 200 week exponential moving average, blue line, it lost some of its bullish momentum when it got to the 1200 level. It looks like the commodity wants to pull back from the 1200 level and if it does so, then the same 200 week EMA may act as support. A subsequent bounce to the upside from the 200 week EMA, may complete a breakout-pullback pattern which could have bullish implications. However, if soy breaks above the 1200 level, then its next resistance could be the 1258 level. Below the 200 week EMA, its next support could be the 1000 level. 

USD/CAD reaches important resistance

On the 4 hour chart of the USD/CAD we can see that the pair has retraced to the upside, visiting the 55 period exponential moving average, purple line, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, around the 1.2841 level. That zone could act as resistance and it is possible for the price to bounce to the downside. If the price goes back down, then the low at the 1.2655 level could act as support. In case the price breaks to the upside the current resistance area, then the 1.2900 level may act as resistance along with the 50% Fibo. Above the 50% Fibo, we can see the 200 period exponential moving average, blue line and the 61.8% Fibo, which could act as resistance too.

The GBP/JPY continues with its bearish trend

On the daily chart of the GBP/JPY we can see that the pair made a pullback to the 157.49 level from where it bounces to the downside and the bearish momentum accelerates. The breakdown below the 151.64 level has taken the price to the 150.00 zone from where it may try to bounce to the upside. For now, the 151.64 level may act as its firs resistance, but above that level we have the 157.49 and the 163.87, which could also act as resistances. Below the 150.00 level, its next support may be the 149.00 level.

Excellent Webinars by ActivTrades

During this month, ActivTrades continues providing excellent Webinars to help its clients achieve their goals. The idea is to get as many traders as possible to become professional traders and trade profitably. The Webinars are a great help for all types of traders. The next events will be on June 16^th and June 23^rd. Malte Kaub will the talking about the MetaTrader Suite. Also, Paul Wallace will the expanding on the current situation with the upcoming referendum in the United Kingdom. To register for these events, please visit the following link:

https://www.activtrades.co.uk/index.aspx?page=events_webinar

Don’t miss on this opportunity to expand your horizons in the financial markets.

61.8% Fibo retracement on gold

Gold fell from the 1300 level to the 1200 level and then it started retracing to the upside after the Dollar started falling. Gold and the Dollar have a negative correlation, that is why when the Dollar falls, gold rallies or vice versa. Gold retraces to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the fall from the 1300 to the 1200 level. Usually, the 61.8% Fibo acts a resistance or support area, in this case the level may act as a resistance and gold may stall its rally here or even bounce to the downside. In case the price of gold bounces to the downside, then it may try to go and visit the 38.2% Fibo, around the 1239 level. On the other hand, gold may break above the 61.8% Fibo and try to go and visit the 76.4% Fibo around the 1278 level, which could act as a better resistance.

The Dollar remains weak

The Dollar index has dropped below the 94.00 level and stays around that zone. The greenback continues felling the effects of the comments by the FED, which have taken the probabilities of a July hike almost to none. Next month’s chances of seeing a rate hike have dropped to 30% and may continue dropping. That is what is keeping the Dollar down and if it continues dropping, then the next support may be the 92.00 level. In case of a bullish pullback, the Dollar index may try to go and visit the 95.00 level, but the 96.00 level may act as a better resistance for the Dollar.

Good technical levels on the USD/CHF

The USD/CHF has been respecting key technical levels on the daily chart, like the 0.9900 level and the rest of the round number levels below it, all the way to the 0.9442 zone. The pair drops to the 0.9700 level on weakness of the Dollar and stalls at that area. From here the pair may try to bounce to the upside, but it may find some resistance around the 200 day EMA, which is just around the 0.9800 level. Above the 0.9800 level, the 0.9900 zone has proven to be a very important resistance area. If the bearish trend continues, then the pair may try to go and visit the 0.9600 level, but its most important support may be the 0.9442 level.

Gold rallies as the Dollar drops

Gold has a negative correlation with the Dollar that is why during this Friday after the disappointing US jobs numbers, gold rallies as the Dollar drops. On the 4 hour chart of gold we can see that the price has broken above the 200 period exponential moving average and it may try to continue heading higher. In case of gold continuing higher, it may try to go and visit the 1260 zone, which has acted as a resistance in the past. To the downside, in case the price retraces back down, the 55 period exponential moving average, purple line, around the 1225, could act as a support.

Possible bullish continuation on corn

On the weekly chart of the July corn contract we can see that the commodity has tried to break above the round number level of the 415.00. In a closer inspection of the chart, we can see that the latest weekly candle is leaving a relatively long lower shadow, which is an indication that the buyers have been trying to push the price higher and have been taking control of the instrument. If the next candle is a bullish candle, then that would be confirming a break out of the 415.00 level and the commodity would have the road clear to get all the way to the 200 week exponential moving average, around the 442.54 level. Precisely around the 442.54 level, we can see that there is where the price made its latest high. Therefore, if the price of corn gets to that level, it is possible to see a bearish bounce from that zone. If the price goes back down below the 415.00 level, then it may retrace to the 400.00 level, which in the past has acted as a resistance and in that case it could start acting as a support.

The USD/JPY pulls back to the downside

The USD/JPY breaks to the downside the bullish trend line that we have drawn on the daily chart and comes near the 109.00 level. The 109.00 level may act as support and the pair may continue oscillating around the 55 day EMA, purple line, without taking a clear direction. However, if the price breaks below the 109, then it may find some support at the 107.00 level or the latest low at the 105.52 level. To the upside, the 111.00 level has acted as a resistance, but above that level, the 112.00 level may also act as resistance in case the price goes back up. The 114.00 level along with the 200 day EMA, blue line, may also act as resistance.