USD/CAD: Double top at the 76.4% Fibo

The 76.4% Fibo usually acts as a good support or resistance zone. On the daily chart of the USD/CAD we can see that the price has already visited the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement and it has bounced twice to the downside, creating a “double top” formation. From this zone, the price may continue falling towards the 61.8% Fibo, which coincides with the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 1.3068 level. Below that zone, the 50% Fibo along with the 1.3000 level and the 55 day EMA may also act as support. To the upside, above the 76.4% Fibo, the 1.3200 level may act as resistance.

Triangle breakdown on gold

Since the end of June, the price of gold has created what it is known as a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. A few days ago the price of gold dropped to the lower part of the triangle, but it stalled momentarily around the 55 day EMA on the 1322 level. The bearish momentum accelerates and the price breaks out of the triangle. The 1300 level may act as support, but there is a more important support zone between the 1253 level and the 1264 level. If the price goes back up and enters the triangle, then it may go and visit the upper trendline of the triangle, but since we are analyzing the commodity on the daily chart, then such scenario may take a few more days before developing.

Good bullish pullback on the GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY has made a pattern known as the cup with handle, but the handle has not formed yet. The price has retraced 100% to the 135.00 area, which is a price action movement also known as a parabolic retracement. If the price breaks above the 135.00 level, then it may go and visit the 55 day EMA, around the 136.52 level. Above the 55 day EMA, the 139.00 level may also act as resistance. In case of a bearish bounce, the 132.00 level may act as support or the low at the 128.67 level.

Oil continues consolidating

Oil had a good rally and the MACD indicator is showing us that the bullish trend is still in place but it is losing strength due to the recent consolidation around the 47.00 level on WTI Oil. The range of the consolidation is getting tighter and it could be forming a symmetrical triangle or a pennant from where the price may come out in any direction. If the price continues going higher, then the 50.00 level may act as resistance, but if it breaks to the downside and drops below the 46.00 level, then the 44.00 level may act as support, along with the 200 day exponential moving average.

Good pullback on the Dollar index

The Dollar index has been weakening since a couple of weeks ago, but it has found some good support on the 94.00 zone and bounces to the upside as shown on the daily chart. Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole and some comments by key FED members have supported the Dollar and that is why we see that the index has gained some bullish momentum and it accelerates towards the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 95.74 level, but it is possible for that zona to become resistance from where the Dollar may bounce again to the downside. Above the 200 day EMA, its next resistance could be the 96.59 level followed by the high at the 97.62 zone. To the downside, the 95.00 level may act as its first support, followed by the low at the 94.00 level.

Will gold go back up?

On the daily chart of gold we can see that the price stays inside the symmetrical triangle that we identified a few days ago. The price is currently visiting the 55 day exponential moving average, which could act as support. Just below the 55 day EMA, around the 1322 level, we can see the lower trendline of the triangle, making this zone a much relevant support area. But if the price breaks below the 55 day EMA, then the bearish momentum may accelerate towards the 1300.00 level. To the upside, if the prices bounces and rallies again, then the bullish momentum may accelerate and the price of gold may try to break out of the triangle to the upside.

NZD/USD: Bullish pressure accumulates

On the weekly chart of the NZD/USD we can see that the price has reached a very good resistance zone just below the 200 week exponential moving average, which is around the 0.7382 level. The lows of the recent weekly candles have been higher than the previous ones, indicating that the pressure is accumulating to the upside. There is a higher chance of seeing a bullish breakout and if the price breaks above the 200 week EMA, then it may try to go and visit the 0.7382 level. To the downside, the low around the 0.6947 level may act as support.

Bullish trend still in place on oil

WTI oil that trades in the US has been having a good bullish trend on the daily chart and even though it retraced yesterday to the downside, the bullish trend is still in place. Today´s candle is showing what it appears to be a “spinning top”, which is an indecision candlestick pattern. The commodity may try to go back up and if it breaks above the 48.00 level, then it may try to reach the 50.00 level. To the downside, the 46.00 level may act as support but the 44.00 zone continues being its most important support on the daily chart. The current pullback may just be on profit taking, therefore the price of WTI oil may go back up.

The Greenback resists

The US Dollar is back in the offensive after the comments from the FOMC member, Fischer. The comments by the FED official raises the probability of raising interest rates by the end of this year. Mr. Fischer has called himself an optimistic and that note brings safety to investors. But still, markets are criticizing FED president, Janet Yellen for not providing a clear message during her speeches. This Friday´s event at Jackson Hole may be decisive for the markets to determine how likely it is to see a rate hike before year’s end.

The Dollar index is currently below its opening level, but it did rally towards the 95.00 zone from where it falls back down. Above the 95.00 level, its next resistance could be the 95.86 zone. Below the 94.00 level, its next support could be the 93.00 level.

Webinars: Live Trading Analysis - FX, Commodities & Indices

Excellent Webinars for the second half of August. Malte Kaub on August 18 will be talking about price action analysis on different markets. Great opportunity for all traders in all types of asset classes. Paul Wallace, once again will be with us, sharing his personal trading experiences on August 25, in a very interactive way. Don’t miss on this great chance to learn from some of the best traders and professional instructors on technical analysis and live trading. To register for the events, just click on the following link:

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EUR/AUD: Visits the 55 EMA

The Euro versus the Australian Dollar keeps its bearish trend on the daily chart, but on the last few days it has been retracing to the upside and it has reached the 55 day exponential moving average, around the 1.4759 level. From this point the pair may try to bounce to the downside, as it has done in the recent past. If it bounces to the downside, then the low around the 1.4400 level may act once again as support. However, the pair may also break this EMA to the upside and the bullish momentum may accelerate towards the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 1.4984 level. Above the 200 day EMA, its next resistance could be the congestion area around the 1.5294 level.

Harsh drop on the Dollar index

The Dollar continues being hurt by the disappointing US fundamentals and its index drops below the 95.00 level to get close to the 94.00 level. The bearish momentum is still in place, even though the index tries to pull back. If it continues dropping, then the 94.00 level may act as support. Below the 94.00 level, it next support could be the 93.00 level. To the upside, above the 95.00 level, the 200 EMA zone around the 95.86 level could act as resistance. Also, there is a chance of seeing a breakout and pullback pattern around the 95.00 level, from where a short entry is possible.

Bullish momentum still present on oil

WTI oil keeps its bullish momentum and reaches the 47.00 level from where it stalls momentarily. From this point oil may try to correct to the downside and if it does, then the price may be completing a breakout and pullback pattern to the 46.00 level, where a long entry may be possible. To the upside, WTI oil has the road clear all the way to the 50.00 level. Below the 46.00 level, its next support could be the zone around the 44.00 level where we also see the 200 day exponential moving average.

Possible bearish continuation on the GBP/JPY

Risk aversion has come back into the markets, making the Yen rally versus its main counterparts, including the Pound. That is why we see on the daily chart of the GBP/JPY that the pair has broken below the 131.00 level and it may continue lower. The bearish trend has been well sustained, even though the pair has made a few pullbacks on the way down. If the bearish momentum continues, then the price may drop to the low at the 128.67 level. In case of a bullish pullback that take the price higher, the first resistance may be the 132.00 level, followed by the 135.00 level. But around the 55 day EMA we see a very important resistance around the 139.00 level.

WTI oil is boxed between the 42 and 44 levels

Since last week we saw on the daily chart of WTI oil that the price dropped to the 40.00 level and then bounced to the upside from that level to go and reach the 200 day exponential moving average, which is currently just above the 44.00 level. From that zone the price bounces back to the downside and touches the 42.00 level, only to bounce back up towards the 44.00 level. We can clearly see that the price is getting boxed or consolidated between the 42.00 and the 44.00 levels. We may try to trade inside the range, taking long positions at the 42.00 support level or short positions at the 44.00 resistance level, but the price may break out of consolidation at any moment and we run the risk of getting trapped in the wrong direction. If the price breaks to the upside, then the 46.00 level may act as resistance. If the price breaks to the downside, then the 40.00 level may act as support.

Possible bearish continuation on the USD/JPY

On the 4 hour chart of the USD/JPY we can see that the pair has bounced to the downside from the 55 period exponential moving average, purple line. The bearish bounce has taken the price very close to the 100.66 support zone. The pair may continue dropping towards that level and it may try to break it. Either way, a visit to the 100.66 level may provide an opportunity to enter the market in a breakdown or a bounce. To the upside, the 102.00 level may act as resistance along with the 102.44 level where we can find the 55 EMA. Above that zone, the next resistance could be the 103.00 level.

Consolidation continues on the Pound

The Pound versus the Dollar on the daily chart continues in a range between the 1.3000 level as support and the 1.3300 zone as resistance. The Pound stays weak due to the fact that it is expected for the Bank of England to ease its monetary policy even more. The bullish pullbacks that the pair has made have been due to Dollar weakness and not Pound strength. At the moment, the 1.3000 is acting as support, but if the pair breaks below that level, it could go to the 1.2800 level. To the upside, the 55 day exponential moving average, purple line, could act as resistance along with the high at the 1.3481 level.

Symmetrical triangle on gold

Gold has been forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart between the 1312 zone and the 1375. Usually, the symmetrical triangle formation acts as a continuation pattern. It is a “resting area” from where the price continues in the direction it was coming from. Due to the fact that the price has a bullish trend coming into the formation, the price has a higher probability of breaking to the upside, especially when inside the triangle we can see that during the last drop, the price could not reach the lower trendline of the triangle. That type of movement is telling us that the buyers have come into the market and are taking the price higher. We still have to wait and see in which direction the price breaks out, since it may go in any direction.

Gold range is getting tighter

Gold drops and it goes back down while the Dollar rallies. Those two instruments have a negative correlation. On the daily chart of gold we can see that the price is forming what it appears to be a symmetrical triangle and the range is getting tighter. To the downside, the most important support area seems to be between the 200 day exponential moving average, around the 1241 level and the 200 week exponential moving average at the 1262 level. But the first support area is around the lower trendline of the triangle along with the 55 day EMA. The 1300 level could also be a good support for gold. To the upside, the first resistance could be the 1358 level followed by the high at the 1375 level.

Webinars: Transitioning from Demo to Live Trading

Most of us are very successful when trading on a Demo account, but when we switch to a Live trading account, we start having difficulties in keeping up with the same performance. That is why the following Webinar should be very helpful to transition from Demo to Live account. Malte Kaub will be conducting the Webinar this 4^th of August, but also be attentive to the next Webinar by Paul Wallance on August 11^th about what is happening in Brazil in the middle of the Olympic games. To register of the upcoming events, please visit the following link:

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WTI oil bounces from the 40.00 level

WTI oil broke yesterday below the 40.00 level, but it couldn’t stay below that level and today it goes back above it as shown on the daily chart. Although the price bounces today from the 40.00 zone, the price of oil stays within the bearish channel and the current pullback could be on profit taking; therefore, there is a high probability of oil continuing down. If oil continues falling, then it may try to reach the support at the 37.00 level. To the upside, if oil continues correcting higher, then the 42.00 level could act as a resistance. 

Another leg down on the USD/JPY

The USD/JPY continues falling after it broke below the 103.00 level and makes another leg down to the 101.00 level. The pair has been falling on weakness of the Dollar, which has been hurt by the worse than expected US fundamentals. This coming Friday we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls number, if the reading comes out worse than expected, then the pair may continue falling and try to break below the 100.00 level. In the past occasions when the pair has reached the 100.00 level, the Bank of Japan has intervened. This time we could see another intervention by the BOJ if the price reaches the 100.00 zone. To the upside, the 103.00 level may act as resistance, but the 104.00 and the 55 day EMA zone may also act as a better resistance.

Corn at a breakout point

On the daily chart of corn we can see that the commodity has a good bearish trend from the highs around the 436.12. The price of corn has already visited the 325.00 level once and now is visiting it again. The more often the price visits a support or resistance, the more chances of seeing a breakout. The 55 day EMA, purple line, has crossed below the 200 day EMA, blue line, forming what we know as “the death cross”, which has bearish implications. Therefore, the price may break below the 325.00 level and try to go and visit the 317.75 level. If the price bounces to the upside from the 325.00 level, then it would be forming a “double bottom” pattern with bullish implications. In such case, the price may go and visit the 346.76 level or the 360.00 level.