Gold goes back up

Gold closes January to the upside and climbs above the 1200 level once again, as we can see on the daily chart. If it continues rising, then it is possible for it to go and visit its 200 day EMA, blue line, around the 1232 level. Above the 200 day EMA, its next resistance continues being the 1300 level. Below the 1200 level, it is possible for gold to consolidate, but the levels that could act as support are, the 1160 level, the 1145, or the low at the 1122 level. For now, gold could keep benefiting from the fall in the Dollar and the rise in risk aversion which has been exacerbated by the recent actions of the new president of the United States.

The Dollar index keeps its bearish trend

The Dollar index has not been able to stall its fall and breaks below the 100.00 level as shown on the daily chart. It is possible for the index to go and visit the 99.00 level during the next few days where it may stop falling, but the 200 day EMA, blue line, just below the 99.00 level could act as a better support for the instrument. What is worrisome for the Dollar is that if it breaks below the 200 day EMA, it will practically have the road clear all the way towards the 96.00 level. To the upside, the 55 day EMA, purple line, may act as resistance in case the index retraces to the upside, followed by the 101.72 level.

GBP/JPY: Will it reach the 76.4% Fibo?

Among the Fibonacci retracement levels, the ones that have the highest probability of acting as support or resistance are the 61.8% and the 76.4%. On the daily chart of the GBP/JPY we can see that the price has been retracing to the upside, but it has broken above the 61.8% Fibo. Today’s candle is showing some indecision and a possible trend exhaustion, but the pair may still try to reach the 76.4% Fibo from where it may try to bounce to the downside. But if the price breaks above the 76.4% Fibo, then it may go and visit its latest high around the 148.49 level. To the downside, in case the pair goes back down, its most important support zone is located between the 55 day EMA, purple line, and the 200 day EMA, blue line. The whole zone may act as support. Below that zone, the next support area is at the 139.00 level, around the 23.6% Fibo.

Symmetrical triangle on oil

WTI oil has entered a consolidation during the past few weeks as shown on the 4 hour chart and forms what it appears to be a symmetrical triangle. The 55 period EMA, purple line, is practically horizontal, showing us that there is no clear trend on oil at the moment. The symmetrical triangle pattern forms when the price consolidates and starts narrowing its range with lower highs and higher lows, forming a triangle. From the current levels the price may head in any direction, which is why the best thing to do is to wait for a real confirmation of a breakout, either to the upside or to the downside. To the upside, a breakout above the 54.00 level should be confirmed before trying a long entry. In such case, the price of oil may try to reach the 55.20 level. To the downside, we should wait for a breakdown below the 52.00 level, which could take the price to the 50.00 level.

The Dow Jones reaches the 20000 points

The Dow Jones industrial index reaches for the first time in its lifetime the 20000 points, prolonging what it has come to be known as “the Trump rally”. The recent executive orders by Trump along with better than expected fundamental data from Japan and Europe has helped the index in getting to the much anticipated level. However, we must keep in mind that the index is clearly over-extended to the upside and there could be a bearish correction amid some profit taking. On the daily chart of the Dow we can see that to the downside, the 19600 level could act as support in case that the index retraces to that level. Below the 19600 we can see the 55 day EMA, purple line, around the 19436 level, which could also act as a support. The same 55 day EMA is showing us that the bullish trend may be losing its strength, due to the fact that the moving average is getting too horizontal. To the upside, above the 20000 level, the next resistance could be the 20100 level.

Gold continues consolidated

Gold has had a very good bullish trend, but once it broke above the 55 day EMA, it consolidates above that moving average and below the 200 day EMA, blue line. The price of gold also stays above the 1200 level and it could try to reach the 200 day EMA, which could act as resistance. In case gold breaks above the 200 day EMA, then the road is clear to the 1300 level. To the downside, below the 55 day EMA, purple line, the price of gold could try to go and visit again the low at the 1122 level, but we must keep in mind that any of the lows on the daily candles could act as support.

Good rally on the Pound

The GBP/USD has had very volatile sessions during the past two days, but the rally seems to be in place after it broke above the 55 day EMA, around the 1.2372 level. It seems like it will reach the 1.2600 level, which could act as resistance. For now the pair stays above the 1.2500 level. Above the 1.2600 level, the pair could have the road clear all the way to the 1.2800 zone. In case the pair comes back down and breaks below the 55 day EMA, then the 1.2300 level could act as support, followed by the 1.2200 level, the 1.2100 level and finally the most important support zone is at the 1.2000 level.

Indecision on gold

Gold has been stuck around the 1200 zone with a good support zone at the 55 day EMA, purple line, which is currently around the 1194 level as shown on the daily chart. The bullish trend is still in place, but the price of the precious metal may head in any direction from the current levels. To the downside, the only important support that we see is the low that it reached around the 1122 level. To the upside, gold may still try to reach its 200 day EMA, blue line, which is currently around the 1233 level. But if the price of gold breaks above the 200 day EMA, then the road is clear all the way to the 1300 level. Another possible scenario is that the price may stay consolidated between the 55 day EMA and the 200 day EMA.

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Follow up on EUR/JPY

Yesterday we saw that the EUR/JPY had reached the 55 day exponential moving average, purple line, which is currently around the 120.81 level. We noticed that the candle that formed on the 55 day EMA is a doji or a spinning top, indicating that the drop on the pair may have lost its strength. On the following candle we see that the pair bounces to the upside and reaches the 122.00 level, which is currently acting as resistance. If the price continues rallying, then the pair will enter the congestion area between the 122.00 and the 124.00 levels. In case the pair comes back down, then the same 55 day EMA may act as support. But below the 55 day EMA, we can see that the 120.00 level or the 200 day EMA, blue line, could also act as support.

The EUR/JPY could have reached a support area

The EUR/JPY was in a well-defined range between the 122.00 level as support and the 124.00 level as resistance. But during the last few sessions the bearish momentum has accelerated and the pair has broken below the 122.00 level to reach the 55 day EMA, around the 120.81 level. The last daily candle is a doji, which means that the bearish momentum has lost its strength and the pair may try to bounce to the upside. In case of a bullish pullback, the 122.00 level may act as resistance. To the downside, the 120.00 level may act as support, followed by the 119.00 level where we can also find the 200 day EMA.

The USD/JPY accelerates is bearish momentum

The USD/JPY had found a good support zone around the 114.00 level, where the 55 day EMA is close by. A few days back we noticed that the highs of the daily candles have been lower than the previous ones, showing us that the bearish pressure was accumulating. During today’s session, the USD/JPY breaks the 114.00 level and accelerates its bearish momentum. At the moment, the 113.00 level could act as a temporary support, but it seems like it wants to go and visit the 112.00 level. Below the 112.00 level, the next support area could be the 109.00 zone, where we can also find the 200 day EMA. In case of a bullish pullback, the same 114.00 level could become resistance.

Will the rally on the EUR/GBP expire?

The EUR/GBP has kept a good bullish trend, but once it got above the 0.8700 level, the rally seems to have lost some steam. At the area between the 0.8700 level and the 0.8800, the price may consolidate there, but if it breaks above the 0.8800 level, then the pair has the road clear all the way to the 0.9000 level. To the downside, below the 0.8700 level, the 0.8600 may act as support, along with the 55 day EMA, purple line, which is around the 0.8568 level. Even lower, we can see that the 200 day EMA, blue line, around the 0.8435 level may also act as support. Finally, the most important support on the daily chart is the round number level of the 0.8300.

Consolidation on the EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is consolidating around its 55 day EMA, which is currently just above the 1.0600 level. The pair is really boxed between the 1.0600 and the 1.0700 levels. From the current consolidation, the pair may head in any direction. Even though it seems like the pair is pulling back to the upside, it really has no clear direction due to the high volatility that is has had lately. Above the 1.0700 level, the 1.0800 may act as resistance, but above that level, the most important resistance is at the 1.0900 level, where we can also find the 200 day EMA, blue line. Below the 1.0600 level, the 1.0400 level may act as support. The EUR/USD has already tried to break below the 1.0400 level, but it has not been able to stay below that zone.

Gold reaches the 1200 zone

We have been following the price of gold during the past few days and today we see that it has reached the 1200 zone along with the 55 day EMA, purple line, around the 1194. There is a high probability of seeing a bearish bounce from this area, since we have the 1200 psychological level and the 55 EMA on the area. But if gold breaks above the 1200 level, then it may try to go and visit the 200 day EMA, blue line, which is around the 1234 level. The rally on gold may be due to a bearish retracement on the Dollar, which has raised the demand of the precious metal. To the downside, the most important support is still the low made around the 1122 level on the daily chart.

Pullback on the GBP/USD to the 1.2200 level

The daily chart of the GBP/USD is showing us a possible breakout and pullback pattern around the 1.2200 level. The breakout and pullback pattern happens when an instrument reaches a support or resistance area, breaks it, and pulls back to the same level only to continue in the direction of the initial breakout. In this case we can see how the price of the GBP/USD found a good support around the 1.2200 level, but during this Monday’s session it broke it to the downside. The price came near the 1.2100 level to pull back to the 1.2200 where it has stall for the time being. If the prices bounces to the downside from the 1.2200 level, then the breakout and pullback pattern will be completed and the pair may try to visit the 1.2100 level. But if the price breaks above the 1.2200 level, then it may try to go and visit the 1.2300 level, which could act as resistance.

The EUR/GBP keeps its bullish momentum

The Pound continues weakening versus the Euro and that is why we see that the EUR/GBP pair keeps its bullish trend, due to the fact that the Pound is the quoting currency. On the daily chart of the EUR/GBP we can see that the pair has broken above the 0.8700, and even though it is too early to tell, the pair may try to go and visit the 0.8800 level, where it may try to stall. But above the 0.8800 level we can also see that the pair has the road clear all the way to the 0.9000 zone. To the downside, below the 0.8700 level, the 0.8600 may act as support along with the 55 day EMA, which is currently around the 0.8555 level.

No clear direction on the USD/JPY

On the weekly chart of the USD/JPY we can see that the pair has been in a range during the last few weeks with the 115.00 level acting as support and the 119.00 level acting as resistance. On the lower time frames it is hard to see that the pair has been consolidating, because in between it has had some volatility. However, on the weekly chart we can see that even though it has been volatile it is also range bound. The MACD indicator is showing us that the pair has a bullish trend, but this trend is losing some strength, due to the fact that the bars on the histogram are getting lower than the previous ones. If the pair breaks to the upside, then its next resistance levels could be any from the 122.00 to the 125.00. To the downside, the first relevant support that we see on the weekly chart is the 111.28 level or the 200 week EMA, which is around the 107.76 level.

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Follow up on the USD/CAD

A few days back we saw that the USD/CAD had found a good support area around the 1.3400 level and was having difficulties in breaking that level to the downside. But today, a daily rally on oil has supported the Canadian Dollar and the pair breaks below the 1.3400 to reach the 1.3300 as we mentioned on our previous analysis. On the daily chart we can also see that if the price keeps dropping, then it may try to visit the 200 day EMA, blue line, around the 1.3233 level, which could act as support, it may also continue with its bearish momentum and reach the 1.3200 level. On this same chart we see that its most relevant support is currently around the 1.3100 level from where it has already bounced to the upside and changed direction. On the other hand, if the prices bounces to the upside from the 1.3300 level, then it may go to the 1.3400, which may change from support to resistance and the pair may go back from there to its bearish trend.

The USD/CAD retraces to the 1.3400 level

The US Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar has retraced to the 1.3400 zone as oil keeps getting higher and supports the rally on the Looney. However, the 1.3400 zone has proven to be a good support for the pair as shown on the daily chart from where the pair has not been able to break it to the downside. A bearish breakdown of the 1.3400 level could cause the pair to go and visit the 1.3300 level or it could go to the 200 day EMA, blue line. If the price bounces to the upside from the 1.3400 level, then it could find some resistance around the 1.3500 level, but the real important resistance for the USD/CAD is located at its latest high around the 1.3600 level.

Gold is having problems with the 1163 level

On the daily chart of gold we can see that the precious metal has had a good bearish trend during the last months, but lately it has been trying to retrace to the upside. However, the bullish pullback seems to be running out of steam and it has stalled at the 1163 level where it has formed a double top. If the double top is confirmed, then gold could go back to is latest low around the 1122 level. The 1122 level could act as a support one more time, but if it breaks it to the downside, then the price may try to reach the 1100 level. To the upside, if it breaks above the 1163 level, the price could visit the zone around its 55 day EMA, purple line, which is very close to the 1200 round number level. On the 1200 level, gold could find some resistance.