EUR/GBP: Visits the 200 day EMA

The Euro versus the Pound has had a very good bearish momentum since it started dropping on Wednesday when it made a high on the 0.8735 zone. During today’s session the Euro has been losing ground versus its main counterparts, including the Dollar and the Pound, but the drop has been more pronounced versus the Pound, not only because of weakness on the Single Currency, but on the fact that the Pound has been gaining a lot of strength. At the moment, the EUR/GBP has reached its 200 day EMA (blue line), around the 0.8516 level. We may find some entry opportunities on the EUR/GBP around the 200 day EMA, either on a breakdown or a bounce from that moving average. If the pair bounces from the 200 day EMA, then it could try to go and visit the 0.8600 level, which acted as a support in the past, but now may act as a resistance. In case the pair breaks to the downside, then it will practically have the road clear to drop all the way to its latest low at the 0.8400 zone.

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Trend reversal on the Euro?

The Euro versus the Dollar has been falling steadily during the last few trading sessions since it started falling from the 1.0900 zone. At the 1.0900 level we can see the formation of a candlestick shooting star pattern, which is confirmed as shown on the daily chart by the two bearish candles following the formation. Therefore, it is possible for the pair to continue falling, maybe towards the 1.0700 level, which could act as support. Once the pair breaks below the 1.0800 level and below the 200 day EMA (blue line), the bearish momentum accelerates and we could see a trend reversal if the MACD line (green line) crosses below its signal line (red line). On the MACD indicator we can also see that the histogram’s bars are getting smaller, which is an indication that the bullish trend is losing its strength. To the upside, if the EUR/USD goes back above the 1.0800 level, then its next resistance level could be the high that it made on the 1.0900 zone. 

Possible double top on gold

On the weekly chart of gold we can see that the price of the precious metal has come back to its 200 week EMA (blue line), around the 1258.23 level. If the price bounces from the level to the downside, then a double top pattern may form, which is a bearish reversal pattern. In order for the double top formation to confirm itself, the price must break below the 1200.00 level, but we can see that the level has acted as a very good support in the past and it may stall the price there once again in case it falls to that zone. Below the 1200.00 level, the next support level could be the 1180.11, followed by the low that it did at the 1122.02 level. To the upside, in case the price breaks above the 1263.51 level, the next resistance could be the 1300.00 level, followed by the 1336.95 level and finally by the high at the 1375.14 level.

The GBP/USD reaches the 1.2600 level

The Pound versus the Dollar has shown a trend reversal to the upside which has been sustained since it started rallying from the 1.2100 zone to the 1.2600 zone. The pair made a consolidation around the 1.2400 zone and then at the 1.2500 zone. From the 1.2500 level, the GBP/USD gains enough bullish momentum to reach the 1.2600 level. In case the pair breaks above the 1.2600 level, it may reach the 1.2700 zone where we can also find the 200 day EMA, blue line. The 1.2700 zone could act as a very good resistance as it did at the beginning of February. In case the pair retraces to the downside, then the first support could be found at the 1.2500 level, followed by the 1.2400 level. For now the fundamental data and the geopolitical events may continue hurting the dollar; therefore, there is a good chance that the pair may continue heading higher.

Technical levels on the NZD/USD

Technical analysis can be applied to any financial instrument that has an opening level, a high, a low, and a close. However, some instrument are more technical than others and react in a predictable way around the technical levels. In the case of the NZD/USD, we can see that it has recently made some reversals around key technical zones. On the daily chart of the Kiwi we can see that the pair started rising from the psychological and round number level of the 0.6900 at the end of last year to reach a high at the 0.7373 to then go back down 100% to the 0.6900 level at the beginning of March. Just when it got to the 0.6900 level, it made a double bottom formation there to change direction to the upside. The bullish momentum accelerates and the NZD/USD reaches the 200 day EMA zona, which is around the 0.7091 level from where it bounces to the downside to reach another round number level at the 0.7000. Once it reached the 0.7000 level during today’s session, it forms a hammer pattern on the daily candles, which is a bullish reversal formation and it is possible for the price to reach the 200 day EMA again for next week. But if the pair breaks below the 0.7000 level, then it may very easily go and visit the 0.6900 level again.

Will the EUR/USD break above its 200 day EMA?

The Euro versus the Dollar has been in a very good bullish trend, which has taken it to the 1.0800 zone where it coincides with the 200 day EMA (blue line), but it is currently trying to stall its trend at that level. On the daily chart we can see that the pair has been having difficulties in trying to break above the 1.0800 level, but at the same time it has neither been able to break above the 200 day EMA. The last time that the EUR/USD broke above the 200 day EMA was on November 9^th of last year and even then the breakout was temporary, because once the pair got to the 1.1300 level, it bounced from that level to the downside. On the current visit that the pair is making to the 200 day EMA, it may try to bounce to the downside and maybe reach the low at the 1.0493 level. To the upside, in case of a bullish breakout, any of the round number levels from the 1.0900 to the 1.1300 may act as resistance.

The USD/JPY breaks below the 200 day EMA

The yen has been rallying versus its main counterparts like the Dollar, the Euro, and the Pound after the risk aversion came back strong into the markets following the huge drops seen on the main stock indices around the world. The pessimism among investors and traders has started to rise over the doubts of Donald Trump’s ability to implement the stimulus package that he has promised. Due to the fact that the Yen is a safe haven instrument, the Japanese currency rallies and on the daily chart of the USD/JPY we can see that the pair has broken below its 200 day EMA (blue line), which is currently around the 111.30 level. If the pair continues falling, its next support could be the 109.00 level. To the upside, the 55 day EMA (purple line) along with the 114.00 level could act as resistance.

Gold takes off again

Gold had been stuck around the 200 day EMA (blue line), which is currently at the 1230 level. But the drop on the Dollar has helped the precious metal gain some strength and takes off to make a high around the 1243 level. We must keep in mind that the Dollar and gold have an inverse correlation and that is why when the Dollar drops, gold rallies. After the double bottom formation that the price of gold made around the 1200 level, the commodity has gone back to its midterm bullish trend, but in order for that trend to stay in place, the price must break above the high that it made at the 1264 level. In case of a pullback, the same 200 day EMA may act as a support. 

Excellent rally on the GBP/USD

The GBP/USD has a very good rally from the 55 day EMA zone (purple line) where it consolidated for a few days before breaking above the 1.2400 level and coming very close to the 1.2500 zone. The bullish momentum accelerates above the 1.2400 level, but it is possible for the 1.2500 to act as a resistance. However, a breakout of the 1.2500 level could clear the way for the pair to reach the 200 day EMA (blue line), which just above the high that it made at the 1.2709 level. In case of a bearish pullback, the first area of support could be the 1.2400 level or the same 55 day EMA. But any of the round number levels like the 1.2300, the 1.2200, or the 1.2100 levels could also act as support.

Head and shoulders pattern on the AUD/USD

On the 4 hour chart of the AUD/USD we can see that the price has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, which up to now it has been working nicely. The price of the AUD/USD was consolidating during the second part of February, but once it broke below the 0.7662 zone, it drops to a low at the 0.7490 zone. From the 0.7490 zone the price bounces to the upside, forming the left shoulder of the pattern and then breaking above its neckline (red line) to continue all the way up to the 0.7700 zone. From the 0.7700 zone, the pair retraces back to the 0.7662 level and goes back up to the 0.7700 zone to form a possible double top pattern. If the AUD/USD breaks below the 0.7662 level, then it may change direction to the downside. Above the 0.7700 level, its next resistance could be the 0.7740 level. Another possible scenario is that the pair may stay consolidated at the current levels like it did in the past without a clear direction.

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Silver stalls its pullback at the 200 day EMA

Silver has been falling rapidly since it changed its trend to the downside and breaks below the 200 day EMA (blue line), which currently around the 17.40 level to reach a low around the 16.80 level. At the 16.80 level, silver makes a double bottom formation and bounces to the upside to reach the 200 day EMA level again, which coincides with the 55 day EMA at which point the bullish momentum dries up and comes back down. The previous candle has the shape of a doji with a long upper shadow, indicating that the sellers have come in and have taken control of the market. The price of silver gets below the 200 day EMA and if the next candle is bearish, then silver could go back to its downtrend and it could visit again the 16.80 level or the 16.60 level.

The EUR/JPY retraces to the 122.00 level

The EUR/JPY has been having a good bullish trend as shown on the daily chart, which has been supported by the pullbacks that the price has made on its way up. The small pullbacks are important for a trend to be kept, due to the fact that these pullbacks give the opportunity for new investors or traders to come into the market and keep the trend going. The EUR/JPY made a high very close to the 123.00 level from where it retraces to the 122.00 level and stops there. From that round number level the pair may try to bounce back up and continue with its bullish trend, but the 123.00 level may act as resistance. Below the 122.00 level, the next support could be the 55 day EMA (purple line), which is currently around the 120.85 level. 

Gold: Stuck around the 1200.00 level

Gold had a very good fall o bearish pullback, which in reality has become in a trend reversal in the short term. However, once it got to the 1200.00 level, gold stops its falls on that level, something that we had already anticipated due to the fact that the zone is a round number level and a very important psychological area. For now the price of gold in consolidating just above the 1200.00 level, possibly waiting for new information to come into the markets to take a clear direction, either to the upside or to the downside. If the price bounces to the upside from the 1200.00 level, then the 55 day and 200 day exponential moving averages may act as resistances. In case the price breaks below the 1200.00 level, then its next support could be in the 1180.11 zone.

WTI oil finds resistance at the 50.00 level

WTI oil was in a well-defined consolidation since the beginning of December up to recently, between the 52.00 level and the 54.00 level. On Wednesday the price of WTI oil breaks below the 52.00 level after the US oil inventories came out well above the expected reading and causes the price of crude to drop. The fall takes the price of WTI oil to the 50.00 level, which initially acts as support, but yesterday the drop continues and oil reaches a low around the 48.54 level, breaking below its 200 day EMA, blue line, around the 49.38 level. Today oil tried to claim back some of the ground that it lost during the last couple of days, but once it got to the 50.00 level, that level changed from support to resistance and the price drops again from that level. If the price of WTI oil drops below the 48.54 level, then the bearish momentum may accelerate even more and it could have the road clear all the way to the low at the 44.50 zone. To the upside, above the 50.00 level, the next important resistance is at the 52.00 level, which could change its role as a support to a resistance.

Gold reverses its short term trend

Gold has been falling in an orderly fashion and reaches the 1200.00 zone, round number level which could act as a support, but the MACD indicator on the daily chart is showing us that the trend reversal has been confirmed to the downside. The MACD line (green line) has crossed below its signal line (red line), indicating that the trend has changed to the downside. The histogram’s bars are getting bigger and that is an indication that the trend is gaining strength to the downside. Apparently gold has lost its shine as a safe haven asset and if the FED raises its interest rates then it is possible for the precious metal to continue falling. However, in order for the downtrend to continue in the midterm, it is necessary for the price of gold to break below the 1200.00 level. In the short-term we could see a bullish pullback, which could be healthy for the bearish trend to continue, but the 200 day EMA (blue line) at the 1232.38 level could act as resistance.

Bearish breakdown on silver

Silver has broken below its 200 day exponential moving average, blue line, which is around the 17.40 level as shown on the daily chart. Silver had a good bullish trend, but once it got to the high around the 18.40 level it started pulling back rapidly, something that is really amazing. From the current level, the price of silver may continue lower, since it seems like that bearish momentum is accelerating. If it continues dropping, silver may try to reach the low at the 16.60 level, which could act as support. But a more important support level could be located at the low of the 15.61 zone. Regardless of the huge drop that silver is showing, it may try to make some bullish retracements. In case the price retraces to the upside, the 18.00 level may act as resistance. Will the price of silver continue dropping towards the 16.60 level?

Possible trend reversal on gold

Gold has fallen 0.60% so far during today’s session and it is continuing with the bearish correction that started on January 27^th. Gold and the US Dollar usually have a negative correlation, which means that when the Dollar rises, gold falls. Lately, the Dollar has been in an uptrend and that has put some pressure on gold prices. If the FED stays in course to rising interest rates that could give the Dollar a push and gold could continue falling. On the daily chart of gold we can see that the commodity is accelerating its drop below the 200 day EMA, around the 1232 level and according to the MACD indicator, it is possible that the trend has reversed to the downside. If the bars of the histogram on the MACD continue getting bigger and the price of gold breaks below the 1200 level, then we could say that the precious metal has changed its trend to the downside. On the other hand, it is possible for the 1200 level to act as a support in case the price falls to that zone.

The NZD/USD loses ground again

During Friday’s session, the NZD/USD dropped really fast towards the 0.7000 level, but at the same time it bounced right back up to close the daily candle as a “hammer” formation on the daily chart. The “hammer” pattern is a reversal bullish formation, which is confirmed when the following candles are bullish or to the upside. In this case, there was no confirmation of the “hammer” pattern, because today the price of the NZD/USD drops again and visits the 0.7000 zone. It is possible for the pair to continue dropping and it could go and visit the 0.6900 level. The 0.6900 level has acted as a support in the past and another visit to that area could stall the pair there and it may even cause a bounce to the upside. In case the pair bounces from the 0.7000 level, its next relevant support is at the 0.7100 level where we can also see the 200 day EMA. Above the 200 day EMA there is a congestion area with a resistance at the 0.7246 level.

The Mexican Peso rallies again

The USD/MXN breaks again below the 200 day moving average, around the 19.82, but this time it does it with a lot of strength. The drop in the pairs is due to support given to the Mexican Peso by US officials, which are considering that the rally on the US Dollar versus the Mexican currency is not convenient for either country. Therefore, it is possible to see some sort of intervention in the near future on the USD/MXN. Technically, we can see that the drop accelerates from the 200 day EMA due to the consolidation that was created on top of that moving average, indicating that the sell orders were accumulating there. That is why once the price breaks the 200 day EMA, the drop accelerates rapidly. If the pair continues falling, then the 19.00 level may act as support. To the upside, in case the pair goes back above the 200 day EMA, then the 55 day EMA on the 20.41 level may act as resistance followed by the 21.00 level.

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GBP/USD: Bearish breakdown

The GBP/USD has been in a consolidation, oscillating in both directions around the 55 day exponential moving average, purple line, as we can see on the daily chart. Actually, the pair has formed what it appears to be a symmetrical triangle. During the last two sessions, the Pound has started to lose some ground versus the Dollar and it has broken below the lower trendline of the triangle, reaching the 1.2300 level where it has stalled at the moment. From this point the pair may continue lower and if it does, then the 1.2200 level may act as support, followed by the 1.2100 and finally the 1.2000 level. In case the pair goes back up, it will be entering the congestion area around the 55 day EMA and it would have to break above the upper trendline of the triangle in order for it to change its trend to the upside.