False breakout on the USD/CAD

The USD/CAD has completed a false breakout below the 1.2300 level as shown on the daily chart and makes a daily low around the 1.2244 level. On the chart we can see clearly the long lower shadow that the pair left below the 1.2300 level, being this an indication that the bulls took control of the market towards the end of the session. If the next candle is confirmed as bullish, then the pair may try to visit the 55 day EMA round the 1.2531 level. Above the 55 day EMA, the 200 day EMA at the 1.2706 level may also act as resistance. Even though the price has left a false breakout below the 1.2300 level, the bearish trend is still in place on the USD/CAD and if it breaks below the 1.2244 level, then the bearish momentum may accelerate to make the price drop to the 1.2060 level, which could act as support as it did in the past.

100% retracement on the Aussie

On the daily chart of the AUD/USD we can see that the pair has completed a 100% retracement or parabolic retracement as it is known and finds again the resistance level at the 0.8123 zone. The Australian Dollar had been falling versus the US Dollar from the 0.8123 level to the 0.7500 level, round number area that acted as a support. When the price of the pair changed direction to the upside, it found a temporary resistance just below the 200 day EMA (blue line) around the 0.7700 level. The pair accelerates its bullish momentum and breaks above the following round number levels until it reached the 0.8123 level. The 0.8123 level is not a round number area, but it has acted as a good resistance due to the fact that on that zone we can find the 200 month EMA. Therefore, it is possible for the AUD/USD to bounce to the downside from the 0.8123 level.

Possible breakout-pullback pattern on the Dollar

The Dollar Index has been in a bearish trend that has taken it to drop to the 200 month exponential moving average, which is currently around the 89.40 level. Actually, when the index reached the 200 month EMA, it broke that level to the downside and made a low around the 88.24 level. From the 88.24 level we can see the instrument pulling back to the 89.40 level as shown on the 4 hour chart of the Dollar Index. Now, the 200 month EMA at the 89.40 level is acting as resistance and the index is trying to bounce once again to the downside from that moving average. In case the Dollar keeps losing ground and its index goes back down, it would have to break below the 88.24 level in order to keep its bearish trend. Below the 88.24 level, its next support could be the 87.00 level. To the upside, above the 89.40 and the 200 month EMA, its next resistances could be the 55 period and 200 period EMAs.

The Dollar in a free fall

The Dollar index has fallen below its 200 month EMA around the 89.35 level. The Dollar has been beaten down mostly by the Euro and since the Single Currency makes up to 57% of the Dollar index, that is why the instrument has dropped so much. Below the 200 month EMA, the Dollar index made a low around the 88.24 level. Its next support level in case the Dollar keeps dropping could be the 87.00 level. The 55 day EMA is showing us that the bearish trend is strong, but in case of a bullish pullback, that same EMA may act as resistance. The 200 day EMA (blue line) may also act as resistance, but it is currently far away around the 94.00 level.

Gold is still in an uptrend

Gold has been behaving very well lately and has kept its bullish trend as shown on the daily chart. The drop of the US Dollar has supported the rally on the precious metal which has reached the 1365 level. Its next resistance level could be the 1375 level. The angle of inclination of the 55 day EMA (purple line) is showing us that the bullish trend is strong. In case of a bearish pullback, the price of gold may try to retrace to the 55 day EMA around the 1308 level. The 1300 level may act as a better support for gold and below that level, the 200 day EMA (blue line) around the 1279 level could also act as a support in case the price falls that far down.

The EUR/USD unstoppable

The EUR/USD has basically confirmed the breakout above its 200 month EMA, which is marked at the 1.2300 level on the daily chart. Even though the pair has found some resistance at the 1.2500 level, the bullish trend is still in place. The price is currently trying to go back up and another visit to the 1.2500 level may produce a bullish breakout to the 1.2600 level. On the other hand, the pair is overextended to the upside and prone to a correction. For now, the 1.2300 level is its most relevant support level. The angle of inclination on the 55 day EMA (purple line) is showing us that the bullish trend is strong. Below the 1.2300 level any of the round number levels could act as support in case of a pullback.

The EUR/USD reaches the 200 month EMA

The EUR/USD has accelerated its bullish momentum as shown on the monthly chart and reaches the 1.2300 level where we can find the 200 month exponential moving average. The area may become a very good resistance zone due to the fact that there are three main factors that may stall the rally. First, there is the 1.2300 round number level with the 200 month EMA and we can also see that the 1.2300 zone was a good support in 2012 and now it may change to resistance. In case of a bearish bounce, the most relevant support on this timeframe is the 1.1700 level. Above the 1.2300 level we don’t see any more resistance levels, except the round number levels all the way to the 1.4000 level.

Bearish breakdown on the Dollar Index

The Dollar index has been in a very good bearish trend as shown on the daily chart since it made a double top at the 95.00 zone by the end of October of last year. The instrument consolidate above the 90.00 level with the highs of the daily candles being lower than the previous ones. That was an indication that the downward pressure was building up at the 90.00 level and eventually the bearish momentum accelerated and the index breaks to the downside. In case of continuing lower, the Dollar index may reach the 89.35 level where we can find the 200 month exponential moving average. To the upside, the most relevant resistance zone is still the 91.00 level.

Consolidation on Gold

Gold has been consolidating lately and on the daily chart we can see that the instrument has made what it appears to be a symmetrical triangle. The formation could act as a continuation pattern, but the price may break out in any direction. There is a higher probability of having a bullish breakout on this case, due to the fact that the trend coming into the formation is bullish. If the price of gold breaks above the 1344 level, then its next resistance could be the 1357 level. To the downside, below the 1326 level, its next support could be the 1300 level where we can also find the 55 day exponential moving average. The 200 day EMA around the 1276 level could also act as a good support level.

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The EUR/USD is struggling with the 200 month EMA

The EUR/USD has reached the 200 month EMA around the 1.2300 level as shown on the daily chart. Due to the fact that the 200 period EMA usually becomes a good support or resistance, the pair has been having a hard time trying to break above that level. The closest resistance zone is the 1.2200 level, but the 1.2100 level could also become a good support in case of a bearish correction. Even though the pair has not been able to break above the 200 month EMA, it has been hammering that zone and a bullish breakout could be in the works. Above the 1.2300 level, its next resistance could be the 1.2500 level. For now the bullish trend is still in place, but ready for a possible pullback.

Indecision on copper

Copper has been in a very good uptrend with some pullbacks on the way up until it reached the 200 month exponential moving average, around the 330.66 level. On the daily chart we can see that the price has consolidated since it reached that moving average. The bullish momentum could have dried out, but the bullish trend in the midterm is still in place. Yesterday’s session was bullish for copper, but today most of the industrial and precious metals have pulled back. The stochastics indicator has come out of the oversold area and that could be an indication that the price may continue higher. The most important support is the 55 day EMA at the 315.40 level and its most relevant resistance above the 200 month EMA is the 340.00 level.

Where will the Pound stall?

The GBP/USD has been in a good bullish trend since it took off from the 1.2000 zone approximately one year ago. On the way up the pair has performed some bearish pullbacks as shown on the weekly chart, but in general terms the trend has been bullish and stays strong. The 55 week exponential moving average has changed its direction to the upside and keeps a good angle of inclination. The 1.3800 zone could act as resistance for the GBP/USD, but if it breaks that level to the upside, it could go and visit the 1.4000 zone where we can also find the 200 week exponential moving average. To the downside, in case of a bearish correction, the same 55 week EMA may act as support.

Decisive level for the Dollar Index

The Dollar has been hit hard by its main counterparts, especially by the Euro and the Pound, which have continued with their bullish trend during today’s session. On the weekly chart of the Dollar Index we can see that the index has fallen to the 91.00 level, zone which already acted as support in mid-August of last year. If the index manages to bounce to the upside, it could be forming a double top pattern, which is a bullish reversal formation, but in order for the pattern to be confirmed, the index must first break above the 95.00 level. Before reaching the 95.00 level, the index may find some resistance on its 200 day EMA around the 94.00 level. Due to the fact that this is a weekly chart, the analysis would have to be considered for the mid or longer term. In case of a breakdown below the 91.00 level, the index may fall to the 89.35 level.

The Dollar Index comes back down

The Dollar Index is losing ground again and falls below the 92.00 level as shown on the daily chart. If the index continues falling, then it may reach the 91.00 level which could act as support. The Dollar Index is composed primarily of the Euro and that is why during today’s rally on the single currency, the Dollar Index has fallen. The Euro rose on expectations that the European Central Bank may start reducing its economic stimulus. On the other hand, the index may stay consolidating around the 92.00 level or it may try to go back up towards the 93.00 level. The 55 day EMA along with the 93.00 level may act as resistance.

Possible bearish breakdown on the Pound

The GBP/USD has found a good resistance zone at the 1.3600 level from where it bounced to the downside to the 1.3500 level and forms what it appears to be a bullish flag on the daily chart. The price of the GBP/USD has been really consolidating between those two levels without taking a clear direction. However, during the last trading sessions, the candles have been bearish and the price has tried to break below the 1.3500 level. If the GBP/USD breaks below the 1.3500 level, then it could visit the 1.3400 level where we can also find the 55 day EMA. To the upside, the 1.3600 level could still act as resistance, but a breakout of that level could take the pair to the 1.3700 level.

Breakout-pullback on silver

The breakout-pullback pattern is formed when the price of an asset breaks an important support or resistance level and then pulls back to it to bounce back in the direction of the initial breakout. On the daily chart of silver we can see that the price has been a very good bullish trend from the low that it made at the 15.59 level. Once the price got to the 200 day EMA, blue line, it breaks above that moving average, but it finds some resistance around the 17.00 level. The price continued rising until the 17.26 level to pull back to the 200 day EMA. Now the 200 day EMA may become a support and if the price bounces from that level to the upside, then the breakout-pullback pattern will be completed. To the upside, the high at the 17.45 level may act as resistance.

Symmetrical triangle on gold

While the Dollar was losing ground, gold got strengthen and managed to break decisively above the 1300 Dollars per ounce. On the daily chart of the precious metal we can see that the price made a high around the 1326 level and consolidated from there. Inside the consolidation a symmetrical triangle was formed. The symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern, therefore there is a higher probability of seeing the price of gold heading higher, due to the fact that the trend coming into the formation is bullish. But the price may break in any direction and a bearish breakout is also possible. Above the 1326 level its next resistance could be the 1357 zone, where gold made a high on September of last year. Below the 1300 level, the 200 day EMA, which is currently around the 1272 level, could act as support.

First trading week for the euro is directionless

The EUR/USD has started the first week of the year practically consolidated between the 1.2000 level and the 1.2100 level as shown on the daily chat. Inside the consolidation we can see that the price has formed what it appears to be a bullish flag or a symmetrical triangles. Due to the fact that the trend coming into the consolidation is bullish, there is a higher probability of seeing a breakout to the upside. The MACD indicator is showing us that the bullish trend is still in place, but it looks like it is losing its strength, therefore we could see a bearish breakdown below the 1.2000 level. Below the 1.2000 level its next support could be the 1.1900 level. Until the price breaks away from the consolidation there is no real direction on the EUR/USD at the moment.

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