Interesting pullback on the EUR/JPY

On the weekly chart of the EUR/JPY we can see that the pair has been in a well-defined bullish trend since it took off from the 112.00 zone, with some pullbacks along the way. On March of last year, the pair made a bearish retracement that took the price to the 115.00 level from where it bounces to the upside. This pair respects very well the technical levels and we can see how once it got to the 200 week EMA (blue line), it finds some temporary resistance there. However, the pair breaks above the 200 week EMA and accelerates its bullish momentum. After that we have two consolidation zones and the pair reaches the 137.51 level from where it retraces again. The current pullback has taken the EUR/JPY to the 55 week EMA (purple line) at the 129.92 level. Due to the fact that the EUR/JPY respects the technical levels, we could see a bounce to the upside from the 129.92 level, but if the pair continues falling, then the 200 week EMA at the 127.57 level could also act as support.

The Dollar rallies on the back of the FED

Today’s comments by the new FED chairman, Jerome Powell, has caused the Dollar to rally amid the possibility of higher interest rates. On the daily chart of the Dollar index we can see that the instrument has rallied really fast, but at the moment, the 90.46 level is acting as resistance as it did at the beginning of February. The 55 day EMA (purple line) may also contribute for that zona to become a resistance. Above the 55 day EMA, the 91, 92, or 93 levels may act as resistance to the 200 day EMA (blue line). To the downside, the 89.53 level may act as support, because the 200 month EMA is right at that level. The lows at the 88.14 level may also act as support.

Oil loses its bullish momentum

WTI oil has tried to back to its bullish trend since it bounced to the upside from the 58.00 level where we can also find the 200 week EMA. On the 58.00 level, the price of oil made a double bottom formation, which is a bullish reversal pattern. The price of WTI oil completed the double bottom formation and headed to the 55 day EMA (purple line), where a breakout and pullback pattern was formed. The commodity has also completed and confirmed the breakout and pullback pattern and that is why it has headed higher. However, once the price reached the 64.00 level, the bullish momentum died out. From the current level, WTI oil may try to pull back to the 61.00 level where we can find the 55 day EMA. To the upside, the 65.00 level may act as resistance, followed by the high at the 66.59 level.

Triangle formation on silver

On the daily chart of silver we can see that the commodity has been consolidating just below the 17.00 level and below its 200 day EMA (blue line). On the consolidation we can see that the price of silver has formed what it appears to be a symmetrical triangle or a bullish triangle, either way we must wait first for a breakout and a confirmation, because the price may break out in any direction. On the other hand, these triangle formations usually act as continuation patterns, therefore if the trend coming into the formation is bearish, then the price has a higher probability of breaking to the downside. The 16.00 level could act as its next support followed by the low at the 15.59 level. Above the 17.00 level, its next resistance could be the high at the 17.67 level.

WTI oil to the upside

Crude oil inventories out of the US have come out lower than expected causing the price of WTI oil to rally from the 61.00 level where we can find the 55 day EMA. On the daily chart we can see that the price has formed a breakout-pullback pattern precisely on the 61.00 level. In order for the breakout-pullback pattern to be confirmed, the next candle must also be bullish. The next resistance could be the 65.00 level, but for now the stochastics indicator has enough space before entering the overbought zone, therefore the price could continue rising. In order for WTI oil to go back to its bullish trend, the price must break above the 66.59 high. In case of a bearish breakdown below the 61.00 level, its next support could be the 58.00 level where we can find the 200 week EMA, followed by the 56.00 level where the 200 day EMA is right below it.

The Dollar stays bullish

The Dollar index has formed what it appears to be a double bottom formation as shown on the daily chart. The double bottom formation is a bullish reversal trend, therefore the Dollar index may try to change its direction to the upside. The two bottoms that made up the pattern are on the 88.14 level, from that zone the index has formed its neckline or confirmation line around the 90.46 level. In case the index keeps rising, if it breaks above the 90.46 level and above the 55 day EMA (purple line), then the double bottom formation will be confirmed. A little bit higher we can see the 200 day EMA (blue line) around the 93.00 level, which could also act as resistance. To the downside, the 88.14 zone could act as support, but below that level, the 87.00 could also act as support.

Gold close to a support zone

Gold has pulling back down while the Dollar is gaining ground versus its main counterparts. The negative correlation between gold and the Dollar has taken the price of the precious metal very close to its 55 day EMA at the 1319 level. The price of gold has already bounced to the upside from the 55 day EMA in the past and this time the zone could also act as resistance. In order for gold to go back to its bullish trend, the price must break above the high at the 1366 level, otherwise the price may just consolidate between the 55 day EMA and the 1366 level. Below the 55 day EMA, its next support zone could be the area between the 1300 level and the 200 day EMA at the 1288 level.

The USD/CAD in a possible congestion zone

On the daily chart of the USD/CAD we can see that the pair has been consolidating between the 55 day EMA at the 1.2538 level and the 200 day EMA at the 1.2681 level. It is not unusual to see the price of an instrument consolidate between those two moving averages without taking a clear direction. The price of the USD/CAD may actually break in any direction, but for now the most probable price action is sideways. The stochastics indicator is showing us that the bullish momentum has come back and the USD/CAD may try to break above its 200 day EMA. In case of a bullish breakout, the USD/CAD may find its next resistance at the high on the 1.2920 level. In case the pair breaks below the 55 day EMA, then its next support could be the zone between the 1.2300 level and the 1.2244 level.

Possible hammer on the USD/JPY

On the daily chart of the USD/JPY we can see that the actual daily candle has formed what it appears to be a hammer formation. The hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that is confirmed when the next candle is also bullish. The formation of the candle with its long lower shadow is indicating that the buyers have taken control of the market. If the next candle is bullish, then that is showing us that the buyers may still be in control of the market and the pair may pull back to the 108.00 level, zone that may act as resistance. The pair is clearly over-extended to the downside and that is high there is good probability of watching the USD/JPY make a correction, but the bearish trend is still in place. For now, the 109.00 level may continue acting as support.

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Gold at the 76.4% Fibo

Among the Fibonacci retracement levels, the 76.4% is the one that has the highest probability of acting as a support or resistance. On the daily chart of gold we can see that the price of the precious metal has made an excellent bullish bounce from the 1307 zone and the 55 day EMA. The price has now reached the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement and it is not unusual to see the price stalling at this zone. In case of a bearish bounce, the price of gold could fall to the 55 day EMA again or the 1300 level could also act as a support. To the upside, in case the price continues rallying, the high at the 1366 level could act as resistance. That is in the technical side, but on the fundamental views, the Dollar must continue falling in order for gold to keep rising. In case the Dollar strengthens again versus its main counterparts, gold could pull back to the downside.

Resistance on copper?

As the Dollar retraces to the downside and the optimism rises on the global economic growth, the prices of copper come back to the upside as shown on the daily chart. However, during today’s session copper reached its 55 day EMA (purple line) at the 315.63 level where it stalls its rally. The 55 day EMA may possibly act as a resistance on copper, but the stochastics indicator is trying to come out of the oversold area above the 20% and that is an indication that the price may continue higher. In case copper breaks above the 55 day EMA, it may try to reach the 330.66 level where the 200 month EMA is sitting. On the other hand, if we do see a bounce to the downside from the 55 day EMA, the price of copper may drop to the 200 day EMA (blue line) around the 298.32 level. Another possible scenario is that copper may stay consolidated between the 55 day EMA and the 200 day EMA without taking a clear direction.

Good support on the Dollar

After having broken above the 90.00 level, the Dollar index has found a good support level at that zone. Actually, on the daily chart we can see that the index has formed what it appears to be a breakout-pullback pattern on that zone. The Dollar index may probably bounce to the upside from the 90.00 level and maybe try to visit the 91.00 level where we can also find the 55 day EMA (purple line). The 91.00 level could act as resistance, but if the index manages to break that level to the upside, we could possibly see a bullish trend reversal. The 92.00 and the 93.00 levels could also act as resistances, but a most relevant resistance could be the 200 day EMA (blue line). To the downside, the index could possibly consolidate around the 89.35 level, but it could find a good support around the low of the 88.24 level.

The Dollar regains some ground

The Dollar Index has managed to break above its 200 month EMA around the 89.35 level and rallies above the 90.00 level as shown on the daily chart. The last two sessions have been very quiet, but the index may try to continue higher. In case of a bullish continuation, the 91.00 level along with the 55 day EMA (purple line) could act as a resistance. The 92 and 93 round number levels could also act as resistances, but in order for the index to reverse its trend to the upside, it must break above the 200 day EMA (blue line). Regardless of the current pullback, the bearish trend is still in place and there is a possibility of the index coming back below the 89.35 level, but the 88.24 level could act as a support.

Change of direction to the downside on the Pound?

The GBP/USD has formed what it appears to be a double top formation around the 1.4300 level, which normally acts as a bearish reversal pattern. The price of the pair has fallen to the 1.3900 level and the last daily candle has a relatively long upper shadow with a small real body, which is an indication that the bears took control of the market towards the end of the session. The price of the GBP/USD may continue falling, but the 55 day EMA around the 1.3749 level could act as support. Below that moving average, the 1.3600 level could also act as support. To the upside, any of the round number levels could act as resistance, but a better resistance could be the 1.4300 level and in order for the pair to go back to its bullish trend it must break above the 1.4400 level.

Gold pressured by the Dollar’s rally

Gold was enjoying a very good bullish trend until it got to the 1366 level as shown on the daily chart, while the Dollar was weakening. However, the Greenback gains ground versus its main counterparts and pressures the price of gold to the downside. This is due to the fact that gold is quoted in Dollars in the international markets and when the Dollar rises, the demand for the precious metal decreases. From the 1366 level gold starts to pull back to the downside until it reaches the 55 day EMA around the 1312 level. It is possible for that moving average to act as support, especially when the last daily candle is in the shape of a doji which means indecision in the market. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the 55 day EMA, then the 1300 level could act as support.

Pullback to a key level on the EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has been very volatile lately, but it has not taken a clear a direction. The pair has been consolidating between the 1.2300 level and the 1.2500 level. In order for the EUR/USD to take a clear direction, it must break one of those levels either to the upside or to the downside. On the most recent pullback, the price came to the 1.2300 level where we can find the 200 month EMA and from there it bounced to the upside as shown on the daily chart. For the pair to keep its bullish trend, which is still in place as indicated by the angle of inclination that the 55 day EMA is showing, it must break above the 1.2500 level. Below the 1.2300 level, its next support levels could be the 1.2200 level along with the 55 day EMA.

Good pullback on the Dollar

Amid the strong drops that we saw on the main stock indexes in Europe and the US, the Dollar managed to rally versus its main counterparts and pulls back to the upside as shown on the daily chart. In one hand, the Dollar keeps its bearish trend and the 55 day EMA (purple line) is trying to cross below the 200 day EMA (blue line), which is an indication that the drop may continue if the cross is completed. For now the 88.24 level may act as support and the 90.00 as resistance. On the other hand, the monthly chart is showing us that the instrument may have completed a fake breakout below the 200 month EMA and the Dollar index may try to go back up in the midterm.

Gold prone to a correction

Gold had been climbing on the back of a weaker Dollar. The precious metal reached a high around the 1366 level as shown on the weekly chart. From the high at the 1366 level, the price of gold has been retracing or pulling back. If the next weekly candle is also bearish, then gold may drop to the 1300 level, which on the other hand, could act as a support. Below the 1300 level, the next support could be the 55 week EMA around the 1279 level. To the upside, the zone between the 1366 level and the 1375 level could act as resistance in case the price goes back up. 

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