Will the USD/JPY keep falling?

The USD/JPY rallied since the middle of March from the 104.63 level to the 111.39 level. From the 111.39 level, the price of the USD/JPY starts retracing to the downside and breaks below the 200 day EMA at the 109.41 level and below the 55 day EMA to reach a low at the 108.11 level. The bullish trend is still in place on the daily chart, but if the pair keeps falling, it may drop to the 106.62 or to the 104.63 level. On the other hand, since the bullish trend is still in place, the USD/JPY may go back up to the 200 day EMA, which may act as resistance. However, the most important resistance on the USD/JPY is at the peak of the 111.39 level, which it should break to the upside in order to go back to its bullish trend.

Gold continues consolidated

The consolidation periods may offer us some trading opportunities, depending on the position of the price. If the range of the consolidation is wide enough, we may trade inside the range taking advantage of the support and resistance bounces, however such strategy is risky due to the fact that the price of the instrument may breakout at any moment. On the daily chart of gold we can see that the price consolidates just below its 200 day EMA at the 1304 level. The price has been oscillating around the 1300 level and forms what it appears to be a symmetrical triangle. To the downside, the low at the 1281 level may act as support. To the upside, the 55 day EMA may act as resistance, followed by the high at the 1326 level.

Will the USDCAD keep rising?

The USDCAD has been rallying steadily from the 200 day EMA around the 1.2771 level. The rally on the pair has been caused mainly by strength in the US Dollar, but the drop in oil has also contributed to the weakness on the Canadian Dollar. If it continues rallying, the USDCAD may find some resistance at the peak of the 1.3123 level. To the downside, the 1.2913 level may act as support, due to the fact that the level was acting as resistance when the price was boxed between that level and the 200 day EMA as support. Below the 200 day EMA, the most relevant support in the mid-term is the low at the 1.2526 level. For now oil is still weak and since it has a positive correlation with the Looney, it may cause the USDCAD to keep rallying.

WTI oil finds support

Oil has been dropping or correcting to the downside after Russia and Saudi Arabia announced that they will raise their oil production to take advantage of the recent rally in crude prices. The news has caused the price of WTI oil to break below the 70.00 and reaches the 55 day EMA around the 67.49 level. After breaking below the 55 day EMA, the price of WTI oil drops to the 66.00 zone. Right now the price is consolidated or boxed between the 66.00 and the 67.49 from where it may head in any direction. To the upside, the 70.00 level could act as resistance, followed by the 72.00 from where it started to retrace. To the downside, below the 66.00 level, the price of WTI oil would have the road practically clear to drop to the 61.71 level and the 200 day EMA (blue line) could also act as support.

The Euro has no bottom

The Euro versus the Dollar seems to have no bottom and the pair continues falling as shown on the daily chart. The EUR/USD falls below the 1.1700 levels and reaches the 1.1650 zone. The pair may continue falling, but the 1.1600 level could act as a support. However, the pair may even break below the 1.1600 level due to the fact that the 55 day EMA is pointing down and it could cross below the 200 day EMA. In case of a cross of the 55 day EMA and the 200 day EMA, we would see a death cross, which has bearish implications in the mid-term. To the upside, the round number levels could act as resistance, but the most relevant resistance is at the 1.2000 level where we can find the 200 day EMA and where the price already created a breakout and pullback pattern.

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Is there a possible resistance on gold?

The light pullback that we are seeing on the Dollar lately has favored the price of gold due to the negative correlation that there is between those two trading instruments. Gold was in a channel since the beginning of the year, stuck between the 1300 zone as support and the 1365 as resistance. Even though the range is relatively wide, the price respected those levels pretty good until it broke to the downside. Las week the price of gold manages to break below the 200 day EMA (blue line) and the 1300 level to reach a low at the 1281 level. From the 1281 level the price consolidates and goes back to the 1300 zone. The 1300 level may now act as resistance, since it was support in the past. The 200 day EMA may also act as resistance. In case of a bearish breakdown below the 1281 level, the 1273 level may act as a good support, due to the fact that exactly at that level we can find the 200 week EMA. Above the 200 day EMA, the price of gold would enter a congestion area where it may consolidate again.

Consolidation continues on gold

Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold had been in a range between the 1300 and the 1365. However, a week ago the price broke below the 200 day EMA blue line and the 1300 level. The price then drops to the 1281 level where it consolidates during the last few days. Now, the 1300 level may act as resistance along with the 200 day EMA. On the other hand, the 55 day EMA, purple line, is pointing to the downside, indicating that the price may continue lower or that a bearish trend is initiating. The price is really consolidating, but if it breaks below the 1281 level, then the 1273 level may act as a better support, due to the fact that in that level is where we find the 200 week EMA. Going further down, the low at the 1236 is its most relevant support in the mid-term.

Possible hammer on the EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has kept a good bearish trend, pressured by the rally on the US Dollar. The Greenback accelerates its bullish momentum after the trade tensions between the US and China ease and supports the rally on the Dollar. On the daily chart of the EUR/USD we can see that the pair has dropped below the 1.1800 level and came very close to the 1.1700 level. The 55 day EMA (purple line) is pointing down and it may try to cross below the 200 day EMA (blue line), which could complete a death cross. The death cross pattern has bearish implications in the mid-term. Therefore, even though the price of the EUR/USD may pullback in the short-term, it may continue dropping. Today´s daily candle is the shape of a hammer, which is a bullish reversal candlestick pattern. If the next candle is bullish, then the EUR/USD may try to correct towards the 1.1900 level which could act as resistance.

The USD/CAD in a range

The USD/CAD has been stuck in a well-defined range during the last 8 trading sessions as shown on the daily chart. The USD/CAD consolidates between the 1.2753 level as support and the 1.2913 level as resistance. Above the 1.2913 level, the next resistance level is the 1.3000 level and above the 1.3000 level, the most relevant resistance is the peak at the 1.3123 level. To the downside, the 200 day EMA is located at the 1.2753 level and below that zone its next support could be the low at the 1.2526. The USD/CAD may breakout in any direction, we cannot be sure in which direction the pair may head next due to the fact that there is no clear trend. The 55 day EMA is actually horizontal and that is an indication that there is no clear direction on this instrument.

The USD/JPY keeps its bullish momentum

On the daily chart of the USD/JPY we can see that the pair has accelerated its bullish momentum above the 110.00 level and comes very close to the 111.00 zone. The pair may find some resistance at the 111.00 level from where it may bounce to the downside. In case of a bearish pullback, the USD/JPY may fall to the 110.00 level, which may act as support. In the past, the 110.00 level acted as resistance and now it may change its function to support. Below the 110.00 level we can see that the pair has been oscillating around its 200 day EMA, blue line, therefore its next support level could be the low at the 108.63 level where we can also find the 55 day EMA, purple line. To the upside, in case of a bullish breakout above the 111.00 level, its next resistance could be the 112.00 level.

Will WTI oil break to the upside?

WTI oil has found a very good resistance zone around the 72.00 level as shown on the daily chart. The price has already tested that level a few times since last week and due to the fact that the daily candle lows are higher than the previous ones, which is an indication that the pressure is accumulating to the upside. Therefore, we could see a bullish breakout of the 72.00 level. Above the 72.00 level we do not have any more important resistances until the 77.13 level where we can find the 200 month EMA. Between the 72.00 level and the 77.13 level, any of the round number levels could act as resistance. Another possible scenario is a breakout-pullback pattern around the 72.00 level. On the other hand, if the price of WTI oil breaks below the 70.00 level, then is next support zone could be the 67.62 level along with the 55 day EMA, purple line.

Bullish breakout on the USD/JPY

On the daily chart of the USD/JPY we can see that the pair has been rallying from the 105.00 zone all the way to the 110.00 area. The bullish trend has been steady with a few consolidations here and there. Actually, once the price go to the 110.00 level, it consolidates there, oscillating around the 200 day EMA (blue line). The bullish pressure accumulates at the 110.00 level with the daily lows higher than the previous ones, forming what it appears to be an ascending triangle. The price of the USD/JPY finally breaks above the 110.00 level and if it continues rallying, then the 111.00 level may act as a resistance. Another possible scenario is the formation of a breakout-pullback pattern around the 110.00 level. To the downside, in case of a false breakout, the price may fall again to the congestion area around the 200 day EMA, with a support at the low of the 108.63 level.

The Euro could have exhausted its pullback

On the daily chart of the EURUSD we can see that the pair has been falling and keeps a very good downtrend that took the price very close to the 1.1800 level, from where it pulls back to the upside. During the pullback, the price of the EURUSD breaks above the 1.1900 level and comes very close to the 200 day EMA, blue line, around the 1.2034 level. Monday’s daily candle is in the shape of a shooting star, which is a bearish reversal pattern. Therefore, if the price keeps dropping below the 1.1900 level, then the pair may go back to its bearish trend in the short term. The 1.1800 level may act as a support for the EURUSD, especially when we can find the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at that zone. The 55 day EMA is pointing down and its angle of inclination is showing us that the bearish trend is still in place. To the upside, the 200 day EMA may act as a resistance.

Bearish flag on the Pound

The flags, triangles and pennants usually act as continuation patterns and are formed around a consolidation zone. However, we must keep in mind that since the price of the asset consolidates in a congestion area, it may actually break in any direction. On the daily chart of the Pound versus the Dollar we can see that the price has formed a bearish flag around the 1.3500 level. The pattern is called bearish, not because it is going to break to the downside, but because the trend coming into the formation is bearish. None the less, we can see that the pressure is accumulating to the downside and we could see a breakdown of the 1.3500 level. In such case, the GBP/USD may accelerate its bearish momentum and fall to the 1.3200 level. On the other hand, if we see a bullish pullback, the pair may find some resistance at the 200 day EMA (blue line), which is just below the 1.3700 level. If the price manages to break above the 1.3700 level, then its next resistance would be the 55 day EMA along with the 1.3900 level.

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WTI oil reaches to the 72.00 level

WTI oil accelerates its bullish momentum after Donald Trump announced that it will pull out of the nuclear agreement with Iran. During yesterday’s session the price of WTI oil was very volatile, first it dropped to the 67.62 level but then towards the end of the session, the prices go back up and break above the 70.00 level. Today’s rally continues above the 70.00 level and WTI oil may reach the 72.00 level where it may find a resistance. Above the 72.00 level, there are no clear resistances until the 77.13 level where we can find the 200 month EMA. To the downside, below the 70.00 level, its next support could be the 67.62 level, but a better support area could be the 66.00 level where the 55 day EMA is getting close to.

The Euro has been falling for four weeks

On the weekly chart of the EURUSD we can see that the pair has been falling for four consecutive weeks and falls to the 55 week EMA around the 1.1863 level. The pair may try to bounce to the upside from the 55 week EMA, but a better support for the EURUSD may be the 1.1800 level where we can find the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the 1.1550 level to the 1.2550 level. Just below the 1.1800 level we can also find the 200 week EMA, which can contribute to make that zone a very good support. On the other hand, the EURUSD may try to correct to the upside due to the fact that it is clearly over-extended to the downside. The 1.2043 level may act as resistance, but a better resistance could be the 1.2200 level.

False breakout on WTI oil?

WTI oil accelerates its bullish momentum due to the tensions between the United States and Iran, also the drop in crude production by Venezuela has also supported the price of oil. The price of WTI oil breaks above the 70.00 level and continues rallying to the 70.82 level from where it pulls back to the 70.00 zone. The breakout above the 70.00 level has not been confirmed yet, therefore we could see what is known as a false breakout. If the price of WTI oil goes back below the 70.00 level, then it would be entering the congestion area shown on the daily chart, where the price may consolidate with a good support at the 66.00 level. Just below the 66.00 level we can see the 55 day EMA (purple line), which could also contribute to support the price of WTI around that zone. On the other hand, if the price keeps rallying, then its next resistance could be the 72.00 level or any round number level to the 77.13 zone where we can find the 200 month EMA.

Has the EUR/JPY reached a support?

The EUR/JPY accelerates its bearish momentum during today’s session, showing us that the Yen has been beating the Euro, even though it continues losing ground versus the Dollar. On the daily chart of the EUR/JPY we can see that the pair breaks below the 200 day exponential moving average (blue line) at the 131.57 level and drops to the 55 week exponential moving average around the 129.79 zone. The 55 week EMA along with the low at the 128.93 level has been acting as a good support for the EUR/JPY, therefore we could see a bullish bounce from the current levels. To the upside, the same 200 day EMA may act as resistance. On the other hand, the EUR/JPY may continue dropping and below the 128.93 level, its next support area is at the 200 week exponential moving average, around the 127.57 level.

Broadening triangle on the USD/CAD

On the daily chart of the USD/CAD we can see that the price has consolidated and formed what it appears to be a broadening triangle. The formation is just a triangle that keeps widening its range instead of closing it. From the pattern the price may head in any direction, but there is a higher probability of breaking out in the direction of the trend coming into the formation. In this case, the trend is bullish before the pattern formed, therefore it may try to break to the upside. The upper breakout is at the highest high of the formation at the 1.2911 level. To the downside, the confirmation line is at the 1.2801 level. To the upside, the 1.3000 level may act as resistance, followed by the peak at the 1.3123 level. In case of a bearish breakdown, the 200 day EMA (blue line) at the 1.2746 level may act as support. But a breakdown of the 200 day EMA will practically clear the road for the USD/CAD to fall to the low at the 1.2526 level.

Fall continues on the EUR/USD

The Euro versus the Dollar is keeping its bearish momentum and breaks below the 1.2000 level as shown on the daily chart. The pair may try to visit the 1.1900 level or even the 1.18 or 1.17 levels. However, after a strong directional movement, the markets tend to correct amid some profit taking. Therefore, the EUR/USD may try to pull back to the 200 day EMA (blue line) around the 1.2045 level, which could act as resistance. Above the 200 day EMA, its next resistance could be the 1.2153 level, which acted as support in the past. The 55 day EMA (purple line) is now pointing to the downside, indicating a possible trend reversal on the EUR/USD. Attention to a possible breakout-pullback pattern to the 200 day EMA.

Gold next to a support zone

Gold has been beaten lately by the strong rally on the US Dollar, which has reached its highest high for the year. The price of gold drops when the Dollar rallies due to the fact that the precious metal is quoted in Dollars in the international markets and when the greenback rallies the demand for gold outside the US drops. On the daily chart of gold we can see that the price accelerated its bearish momentum below the 1328 level where we can see its 55 day EMA. At the moment, the price of gold has reached its 200 day EMA (blue line), around the 1350 level. The 200 day EMA along with the 1300 level could act as a good support zone for gold, therefore we could see a bullish bounce where the 1328 level could act as resistance. On the other hand, if the price of gold breaks below the 1300 level, it would have the road clear to drop to the 1236 level, but with some pullbacks on the way down.