The EUR/USD awaits this week’s fundamentals

The Euro has been under a lot of pressure, especially by the US Dollar and last week we saw the EUR/USD touch a low of 1.33 Dollars per Euro. Could this pair drop lower? Well, everything is possible in the financial markets, but currently the pair stays dependent on the releases of this week’s economic data out of the Eurozone and the United States. The most important numbers to watch out of the Eurozone are German Zew economic sentiment for tomorrow at 5 am NYT and German GDP on Thursday at 2 am NYT. From the U.S. we should keep an eye on Retail Sales on Wednesday at 8:30 am NYT. The only thing that can keep the EUR/USD from falling further is that the fundamentals from the U.S. miss expectations and the fundamentals from the Eurozone come out better than expected. Otherwise, there are plenty of reasons to see the Euro weaken some more versus the greenback.

The USD/CAD is getting near the 61.8% Fibo again

The recent rally on the USD/CAD is really a pullback or retracement of the drop from the 1.1275 level to the 1.0620 level, just as it is shown on the chart below. At the moment, we can see that the price is getting near the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement around the 1.1025 level. Usually, when the price retraces a 61.8% it tries to change direction, but if the price continues rising, it may visit the 76.4% Fibo, which is also a good support or resistance zone.

The MACD

The MACD is a trend indicator, which shows the direction of the trend and the strength of it. On the image below we can see a 12-26 configuration MACD, this means that the indicator is using a 12 period moving average and a 12 period moving average to determine the direction and strength of the trend by measuring the distance between these two moving averages. The blue line on the chart is the MACD line and the red-dotted line is the signal line. When the MACD line crosses below the signal line it means that the trend has changed to the downside and when the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it means that the trend has changed to the upside.

The green bars make up the histogram and the histogram tells us how strong the trend is. The larger the bars are, the stronger the trend. If the bars are pointing down, it means that the trend is bearish and vice versa. The histogram can tell us ahead of time if the trend is losing momentum.

The AUD/USD couldn’t break the 0.9300 level

The Aussie tried to break below the 0.9300 level, but as we can see on the daily chart, the pair was not able to stay below that level and has come back to the upside. A little bit below that round number level, we can also see the 200 Day Exponential Moving Average, which has also acted as a very good support level for the pair. At the moment we can see that the 55 Day Exponential Moving Average is acting as a resistance and the price may try to stall its rally around that zone. From this point on all we can do is wait and see if the price continues going higher and reaches the 0.9400 level or if it comes back to the 0.9300 level to try to break it for a third time.

The EUR/JPY is getting closer to the 137.00 level

The Euro has continued falling for today versus the Yen and we can see on the 4 hour chart that the price has come very close to touching the 137.00 level. In the past we can see that the last time the price touched the 138.00 level, it bounced from that zone to the downside and has kept on falling. If we see a visit to the 137.00, that level could act as a good support and stall the price there, maybe even bounce to the upside. Therefore, we must be attentive to a possible visit to that zone, because we may see a bullish bounce from there.

Will the Euro remain steady versus the Pound?

Last Friday we saw how the Euro rallied versus the Pound and it reached the 55 Day Exponential Moving Average, which is located just below the 0.8000 round number level. On the Daily chart below of the EUR/GBP, we can see that the pair has stayed within the range between the 0.7900 level and the 0.8000 level. During today’s session the pair tried to come back down and depending on how the upcoming fundamentals out of the Eurozone and the UK come out, we may see a continuation of the bearish trend or a higher correction. However, because the ECB and the BOE are implementing different monetary policies, the balance is tilting more towards more strength on the Pound than on the Single Currency.

The GBP/USD bounces off the 76.4% Fibo

The GBP/USD has kept a sustained drop since it last visited the 1.7200 level. On the daily chart below, we can see how the pair has reached the 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement and tries to bounce to the upside from that level. A little bit below that level, we also have the 1.6800 round number level, which could also act as a support zone. The small rally on the pair for today was caused by the worse than expected NFP reading out of the US, but if for next week the fundamentals from the US continue to come out better than expected, we may see a break below this support zone.