Breakdown of the 0.7400 level on the NZD/USD

The NZD/USD managed to find a good support zone at the 0.7400 level as shown on the daily chart and the pair formed what it appears to be a head and shoulders pattern. The 0.7400 level has acted as its neckline, but the pair breaks below that zone during today’s session. The US Dollar has been gaining strength versus its main counterparts after the NFP numbers out of the US came out better than expected. Therefore, the NZD/USD may try to continue falling. In case of a bearish continuation, the pair may find some support around the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line), which is currently just above the 0.7300 level. In case of a breakdown below the 0.7300 level, the NZD/USD may find a better support at the 0.7200 level, which has already acted as a good support in the past. The 200 day EMA (blue line) may also act as a support. To the upside, the most important resistance levels are the 0.7500 zone and the high at the 0.7559 level.

NFP numbers support a bullish close on the Dollar

Today we had the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) numbers out of the US, which came out better than expected, causing an amazing comeback on the Dollar Index. The US economy was expected to have created 182K new jobs during the month of July, but the reading came out at 209K new jobs. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3% and the average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. The data was more than excellent and it was exactly what the Dollar needed to change its direction versus its main counterparts. On the daily chart of the Dollar Index we can see that the instrument broke above the 93.00 level and it may try to continue rising towards the 94.00 level. The stochastics indicator is trying to come out of the oversold zone at the 20% level and if it does, then there could be a trend reversal on the index. The 94.00 level could act as a resistance, followed by the 95.00 or the 55 day EMA (purple line). To the downside, the 92.00 level could still act as a support in case of a bearish continuation on the Dollar Index.

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What level could be the next resistance on the EUR/USD?

The EUR/USD seems unstoppable. The pair has reached the 1.1900 zone and keeps its bullish trend as shown on the weekly chart. The EUR/USD has broken above the 55 week EMA around the 1.0900 level and above the 200 week EMA around the 1.1600 level. From this point there are no more relevant resistance on sight, but any of the round number levels like the 1.1900 or the 1.2000 levels could act as resistance. The 1.2000 level has a high probability of acting as resistance due to the fact that it is a psychological level. The higher an instrument rises, the higher the probabilities of it correcting to the downside. Therefore, we could see a pullback on the EUR/USD at any moment. The possibility of the European Central Bank adjusting its monetary policy has kept the Euro rising, but the day that the rumors become real, we could see a retracement on the Single Currency on the back of a profit taking spree.

Gold visits the 76.4% Fibo

The weakness on the US Dollar has supported the rally on gold taking the precious metal to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the drop that it had from the 1295 level on June 6^th to the 1204 level on July 10^th as shown on the daily chart. The price of gold has tried to stall its rally at some of the most relevant resistance levels like the 200 day EMA at the 1243 level, the 200 week EMA at the 1254 level, and the 61.8% Fibo at the 1261 level. At the moment, the 76.4% Fibo at the 1274 level could act as resistance, but the lower shadow of the current daily candle is showing us that the bulls are still in control of the market. Therefore, the price of gold could possibly break above the 76.4% Fibo and maybe try to reach the high at the 1295 level or the 1300 round number level. To the downside, the most important support could be the 200 week EMA at the 1254 level.

The EUR/USD breaks above the 1.1800 level

The Euro versus the Dollar has reached levels that it has not visited since January 2015 and breaks above the 1.1800 level. The probabilities of the European Central Bank changing its monetary policy and starts to raise its interest rates are getting higher every day. On the weekly chart of the EUR/USD we can see that the rally on the pair has been steady and accelerates even more when the price broke above the 200 week exponential moving average (EMA) around the 1.1600 level. The pair is clearly over-extended to the upside, but it may continue rallying. If the pair keeps rising, its next resistance level could be the 1.2000 level, due to the fact that the zone is a very important round number area, but the 1.1900 level could also act as resistance. In case of a bearish pullback, the 1.1600 level where we can find the 200 week EMA may act as a support.

Oil gains bullish momentum

After the WTI Oil broke above the 48.00 level and above the 200 day EMA, the commodity has been rising in an orderly fashion until coming very close to the 50.00 level as shown on the daily chart. The 50.00 level could act as resistance and the price of WTI oil could bounce to the downside from that zone. In case of a bearish bounce from the 50.00 level, the WTI could form a breakout and pullback pattern on the 200 day EMA. On the other hand, a breakout of the 50.00 level, could take the price to the 51.00 level or the 52.00 level. The 52.00 level could act as a resistance, but a better resistance could be the 53.00 level. If the price of WTI oil manages to break below the 48.00 level, any of the round number levels from the 47.00 to the 42.00 level could act as support.