200 pip rally and drop on the EUR/USD

The Euro versus the Dollar has been very volatile for today and on the 15 minute chart we can see that once the first fundamental from the US came out worse than expected, the pair rallied a little bit more than 100 pips from the 1.1000 level to the 1.1100 level, but once it got to the 1.1100 level, it bounces from that zone to the downside and it retraces the same 100 pips to the 1.1000 level. It is possible for the 1.1000 level to become a good support, but if for next week the US fundamentals come out better than expected, especially the Non-Farm Payrolls report, then the pair may continue dropping and the bearish momentum may accelerate. Beneath the 1.1000 level, the 1.0900 level could become its next support.

Bearish trend on the Kiwi seems to weaken

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar has had a good downtrend, well sustained, but after it touched the 0.6500 level it has gone sideways, forming a consolidation. The price has really been oscillating between the 0.6600 level and the 0.6700 level and even though on the daily chart it seems like the price has broken the bearish trendline, in reality what the price has done is go sideways. The 55 and the 200 day EMAs are still keeping a good separation between them, indicating that the bearish trend is still in place, none the less, in order to determine if the price has really gone back to its bearish trend, we must first see a breakdown below the 0.6500 level.

Gold: Will it get to the one thousand dollars per ounce?

Gold continues showing some weakness as the Dollar keeps strengthening, but there are also other factors that are affecting the price of the precious metal like an excess of gold reserves and low demand. At the moment, the 1071 level has served as a good support, but the actual consolidation could be just a resting zone for the price to continue going lower. An actual rate hike by the FED could cause the Dollar to continue rallying and gold to continue dropping. In such case, it is possible for gold to come and visit the one thousand dollars an ounce level. The 55 day EMA continues getting apart from the 200 day EMA, which indicates that the downtrend is still in place. Since markets never go down or up in a straight line, it is also possible to see a retracement to the 1131 level, which could act as support.

EUR/JPY: Possible breakout and pullback pattern

The Euro versus the Yen has not been able to break above the 137.00 level, but after the price broke above the 200 period exponential moving average on the 4 hour chart, around the 136.00 level, we can see that it is trying to retrace back to that same zone. It is possible that a breakout and pullback pattern gets completed, and if such event happens, then the price may return to the upside. A good example of a breakout and pullback pattern can be seen a few days back around the 135.00 level, where the price clearly breaks above the 135.00 to pull back to it and continue going higher. The bullish trend is still in place, even though the Stochastics are pointing to the downside, due to the retracement that the price is making at the moment.

The EUR/USD retraces to the 76.4% Fibo

The Fibonacci retracements that have the highest probability of becoming support or resistance are the 61.8% and the 76.4%. On the 4 hour chart of the EUR/USD we can see how the price retraces to the 76.4% Fibo and stalls at that area, which is just above the 1.1100 level. Today the price tried to break above that zone, but it couldn’t stay above that zone and comes back down below it. The bullish trend is still in place, but we could see a retracement to the 1.1000 level. Above the 1.1100 level, the 1.1200 could act as resistance. In case the price visits the 1.1200 level, then it would be completing a 100% parabolic retracement. It is called a “parabolic” retracement, because the price forms what it appears to be a “parabola”.

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USD/JPY: Consolidation around the 124.00 level

The Dollar versus the Yen has not been able to give confirmation of the breakout of the 124.00 level and it keeps oscillating around that round number level. The 55 period exponential moving average (purple line), around the 123.63 level has acted as a good support and the price bounces from that zone to the upside. If the price continues going higher, then the 125.00 level may act as a resistance, especially when the Bank of Japan has said that it will intervene if the USD/JPY touches the 125.00. Do the downside, the 200 period exponential moving average (blue line) may also act as a support, which is very close to the 123.00 round number level.