The NZD/USD completes 7 weeks rallying

The New Zealand Dollar versus the US Dollar has completed seven weeks rallying and it stays above the 0.7300 key level, even though it has not been able to confirm a real breakout of the bearish channel shown on the weekly chart. On the chart we can also see that the pair has found a good resistance on the 200 week exponential moving average (blue line) every time it visits that zone. On the last visits that we have seen to the 200 week EMA, the pair has left some relatively short wicks above the moving average to come back into the channel. During the last two weeks, the NZD/USD has stayed above the 200 week EMA, but there is still the possibility of coming back down. None the less, if the next weekly candle is also bullish, a breakout of the 200 week EMA, the 0.7300 level, and the channel could be confirming to the upside and the pair may visit the 0.7400 level. Above the 0.7400 level, its next resistance could be the 0.7500 level. In case of a bearish bounce or pullback, the 0.7200 level or the 0.7100 level could act as support.

Possible shooting star on oil

Since WTI oil started retracing to the upside from the 42.00 level, we have been attentive to a possible bearish bounce from the 44.00, because the 44.00 level had acted in the past as support and it was possible for it to act as resistance on this occasion. But the bullish momentum was very strong on WTI oil and the price continued rallying towards the 45.00 zone. At the 45.00 zone today’s daily candle has the shape of a shooting star. The shooting star formation is a bearish reversal pattern that it is confirmed when the next candle is also bearish. Therefore, oil may drop from the current level. To the downside, the 44.00, the 43.00 or the 42.00 levels may act as support. To the upside, the 46.00 level, the 47.00, or the 48.00 may act as resistance.

The Dollar Index breaks a key support level

The Dollar Index measures the strength of the Greenback versus its main counterparts with the Euro making up 57.6% of the index. That is why the recent rally on the Single Currency has taken the Dollar Index to new lows. The Dollar has also been pressured by the doubts that have risen lately over the capacity of Donald Trump implementing the economic stimulus that it promised for the United States. On the daily chart we can see that the index found a good support at the 96.00 level, but today the bearish momentum accelerates and the index breaks below the 96.00 level. If the drop continues, the instrument may reach the 95.00 level. Above the 96.00 level, the 97.00 may act as resistance, along with the 55 day exponential moving average (purple line), which is very close to the 98.00 level. The 200 day exponential moving average (blue line) at the 98.64 level could also act as a resistance.

The Euro takes off after comments by Mario Draghi

Traders and investors of the Forex market have been expecting some sign of the future monetary policies that the European Central Bank may put into place and today its president, Mario Draghi, has said that the Eurozone needs a moderate economic stimulus for now. Those words have been taken as a bullish sing for the Single Currency and we can see how on the daily chart the EUR/USD has broken above the 1.1300 level. The pair breaks out of the consolidation zone where it has been during the past few weeks and if tomorrow’s daily candles is also bullish, then the EUR/USD may try to reach the 1.1400 level. On the other hand, if the pair drops below the 1.1300 level, then it will be entering the congestion zone between the 1.1100 level and the 1.1300 level with the 1.1200 level as its midpoint. To the downside, the 1.1100 level and the 1.1000 level along with the 200 day exponential moving average on the 1.0920 level could act as support in case of a bearish retracement, but for now the bullish trend is still in place.

Pullback on oil could be temporary

WTI Oil is continuing pulling back to the upside since it bounced from the 42.00 level to reach the 43.42 zone at the moment. It is possible for oil to continue rallying maybe towards the 44.00 level, but there is a good chance for that level to act as resistance, due to the fact that on May 5^th, it acted as a support as shown on the daily chart. We should remember that usually support become resistance or resistance becomes support. The bearish trend is still in place, even though the price of oil has been rising during the last three trading sessions. Never the less, if the bearish trend is to continue, the price must break below the 42.00 level and maybe go and visit the 41.00 level. Above the 44.00 level, the next resistance could be the zone between the 46.00 level and the 47.00 level. But a better resistance level could be found at the 200 day exponential moving average (blue line), which is currently around the 48.68 level.

Will silver visit the 17.00 level?

The price of silver has been rallying during the last three days as shown on the daily chart, since it made a low at the 16.34 level. The rally on silver coincides with the comeback that gold has been making lately. Those two precious metals, gold and silver, have a positive correlation. However, we must keep in mind that the bearish term in the short term is still in place and silver may try to go back down. In case of silver going back down, the low at the 16.34 level may act once again as support, but a more relevant support could be the 16.00 round number level where it made its latest low to start climbing. To the upside, the 17.00 level may act as resistance, but we are still waiting to see if the price of silver does get there during next week’s trading sessions. Above the 17.00 level, its next important resistance is at the 200 day EMA on the 17.30 level, followed by the high that it made on the 17.74 level.

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