False breakout on the USD/CAD

The USD/CAD has completed a false breakout below the 1.2300 level as shown on the daily chart and makes a daily low around the 1.2244 level. On the chart we can see clearly the long lower shadow that the pair left below the 1.2300 level, being this an indication that the bulls took control of the market towards the end of the session. If the next candle is confirmed as bullish, then the pair may try to visit the 55 day EMA round the 1.2531 level. Above the 55 day EMA, the 200 day EMA at the 1.2706 level may also act as resistance. Even though the price has left a false breakout below the 1.2300 level, the bearish trend is still in place on the USD/CAD and if it breaks below the 1.2244 level, then the bearish momentum may accelerate to make the price drop to the 1.2060 level, which could act as support as it did in the past.

100% retracement on the Aussie

On the daily chart of the AUD/USD we can see that the pair has completed a 100% retracement or parabolic retracement as it is known and finds again the resistance level at the 0.8123 zone. The Australian Dollar had been falling versus the US Dollar from the 0.8123 level to the 0.7500 level, round number area that acted as a support. When the price of the pair changed direction to the upside, it found a temporary resistance just below the 200 day EMA (blue line) around the 0.7700 level. The pair accelerates its bullish momentum and breaks above the following round number levels until it reached the 0.8123 level. The 0.8123 level is not a round number area, but it has acted as a good resistance due to the fact that on that zone we can find the 200 month EMA. Therefore, it is possible for the AUD/USD to bounce to the downside from the 0.8123 level.

Possible breakout-pullback pattern on the Dollar

The Dollar Index has been in a bearish trend that has taken it to drop to the 200 month exponential moving average, which is currently around the 89.40 level. Actually, when the index reached the 200 month EMA, it broke that level to the downside and made a low around the 88.24 level. From the 88.24 level we can see the instrument pulling back to the 89.40 level as shown on the 4 hour chart of the Dollar Index. Now, the 200 month EMA at the 89.40 level is acting as resistance and the index is trying to bounce once again to the downside from that moving average. In case the Dollar keeps losing ground and its index goes back down, it would have to break below the 88.24 level in order to keep its bearish trend. Below the 88.24 level, its next support could be the 87.00 level. To the upside, above the 89.40 and the 200 month EMA, its next resistances could be the 55 period and 200 period EMAs.

The Dollar in a free fall

The Dollar index has fallen below its 200 month EMA around the 89.35 level. The Dollar has been beaten down mostly by the Euro and since the Single Currency makes up to 57% of the Dollar index, that is why the instrument has dropped so much. Below the 200 month EMA, the Dollar index made a low around the 88.24 level. Its next support level in case the Dollar keeps dropping could be the 87.00 level. The 55 day EMA is showing us that the bearish trend is strong, but in case of a bullish pullback, that same EMA may act as resistance. The 200 day EMA (blue line) may also act as resistance, but it is currently far away around the 94.00 level.

Gold is still in an uptrend

Gold has been behaving very well lately and has kept its bullish trend as shown on the daily chart. The drop of the US Dollar has supported the rally on the precious metal which has reached the 1365 level. Its next resistance level could be the 1375 level. The angle of inclination of the 55 day EMA (purple line) is showing us that the bullish trend is strong. In case of a bearish pullback, the price of gold may try to retrace to the 55 day EMA around the 1308 level. The 1300 level may act as a better support for gold and below that level, the 200 day EMA (blue line) around the 1279 level could also act as a support in case the price falls that far down.

The EUR/USD unstoppable

The EUR/USD has basically confirmed the breakout above its 200 month EMA, which is marked at the 1.2300 level on the daily chart. Even though the pair has found some resistance at the 1.2500 level, the bullish trend is still in place. The price is currently trying to go back up and another visit to the 1.2500 level may produce a bullish breakout to the 1.2600 level. On the other hand, the pair is overextended to the upside and prone to a correction. For now, the 1.2300 level is its most relevant support level. The angle of inclination on the 55 day EMA (purple line) is showing us that the bullish trend is strong. Below the 1.2300 level any of the round number levels could act as support in case of a pullback.

The EUR/USD reaches the 200 month EMA

The EUR/USD has accelerated its bullish momentum as shown on the monthly chart and reaches the 1.2300 level where we can find the 200 month exponential moving average. The area may become a very good resistance zone due to the fact that there are three main factors that may stall the rally. First, there is the 1.2300 round number level with the 200 month EMA and we can also see that the 1.2300 zone was a good support in 2012 and now it may change to resistance. In case of a bearish bounce, the most relevant support on this timeframe is the 1.1700 level. Above the 1.2300 level we don’t see any more resistance levels, except the round number levels all the way to the 1.4000 level.