The
EUR/USD on the daily chart has been consolidating and inside such
consolidation, a symmetrical triangle has formed. The symmetrical triangle
could act as a continuation patter, but the price may breakout in any direction,
really. The range inside the triangle starts to shrink and that causes the
pressure to accumulate until the price breaks out in any given direction. To
the upside, the price of the EUR/USD may find some resistance at the 200 day
EMA, around the 1.1868 level. Above the 200 day EMA, its next resistance could
be the 1.2000 level. To the downside, the 1.1500 level may act as support, but
in case of a breakdown, the EUR/USD may find another support at the 1.1400
level.
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
Monday, July 30, 2018
Consolidation on gold
Gold
has entered into a consolidation phase as shown on the daily chart of the
precious metal. The price of gold consolidates between the 1211 level as
support and the 1236 level as resistance. Inside the consolidation, gold has
formed what it appears to be a bearish flag or pennant. It is called a bearish
flag, because the trend coming into the consolidation is bearish. Therefore,
there is a higher probability of seeing a breakdown to the 1200 level, which
could act as support. But the price may also break to the upside and form a
pullback or correction. Above the 1236 level, the 55 day EMA may act as a
resistance, but a better resistance could be the 1273 level, due to the fact
that at that level we can find its 200 week exponential moving average.
Friday, July 27, 2018
Death cross on copper
The death
cross pattern is a moving average cross over pattern that has a very peculiar
name due to the fact that the pattern has negative implications for the
underlying asset in mid or longer term. The pattern has better chances of
success on the daily chart. The pattern is confirmed when the 55 day moving
average (purple line) crosses below the 200 day moving average (blue line). The
cross is indicating us that the trend has reversed to the downside and the
price may continue falling. At the same time we must keep in mind that when the
cross happens, the price of the asset is already over-extended to the downside
and probably ready for a correction. In fact, there is a 50% chance of seeing a
pullback after a death cross is confirmed. The price of copper pulls back form
the 270.00 zone to the 283.62 area where we can find the 200 week EMA. The price
may continue falling, but the 270.00 level may act as a temporary support.
However, if the price breaks below the 270.00 level, the bearish momentum may
accelerate even more.
Thursday, July 26, 2018
Breakout-pullback pattern on Bitcoin
The price
of Bitcoin has been supported lately by the growing acceptance of the
cryptocurrency by the large financial institutions. On the daily chart of
Bitcoin we can see that the price started to rise from the 5769 level and
breaks above the 6898 level along with the 55 day EMA (purple line). The bullish
momentum takes the price of Bitcoin to the 200 day EMA, which is currently just
below the 8000 level. The 200 day EMA tried to act as a resistance, but the
price continued higher to break above the 8000 level and reaching a high around
the 8472 level to pull back to the 8000 level. If the price of Bitcoin bounces
to the upside from the 8000 level, then a breakout and pullback pattern may
develop and Bitcoin may try to reach the 9000 level. To the downside, below the
200 day EMA, its next support level could be the 55 day EMA and the 6898 level.
Wednesday, July 25, 2018
General Motors plummets
The tariffs
on steel and aluminum by the US has started to affect the outlook for the
futures earnings of General Motors and possibly other US car manufacturers. Even
though GM has reported earnings above expectations for the second quarter, its
revenue has fallen and that causes the price of its stock to plummet during
today´s session. The price of GM has been falling from the high that it made at
the 44.94 level during last month and reaches the 55 and 200 day EMAs zona
where it consolidates. After consolidating above the 38.68 level for around 15
trading sessions, the stock makes a bearish gap and drops to the 36.51 level.
Another factor that has been eating into GM’s revenue and sales is the fact
that the US Dollar has risen considerably versus the Argentine Peso and the
Brazilian Real, causing GM’s cars to be more expensive in those countries,
causing demand to drop. In case of continuing lower, the price of GM may find
some support around the low at the 35.25 level. To the upside, the 38.68 level
may change to resistance in case the price pulls back to that zone.
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
EMAs confluence on the EUR/JPY
The
exponential moving averages or EMAs may act as very good support or resistance
zones, especially in areas where they coincide on different time frames. For
example, on the daily chart of the EUR/JPY we can see that the 55 day EMA
(purple line) is at the 129.84 level and exactly in that same area is where the
55 week EMA is located. That is why it is of no surprise to see the price of
the EUR/JPY stall at that zone and it may even try to bounce to the upside. The
current drop on the pair is really a correction from a bullish trend in the
midterm. If the price bounces to the upside from the 55 day EMA, then the 200
day EMA (blue line) may act as a temporary resistance. On the other hand, if
the EUR/JPY breaks below the 55 day EMA, its next support could be the 127.98
level where we can find its 200 week EMA. On the daily chart we can also see
that the most relevant support is at the 125.00 round number level.
Monday, July 23, 2018
Possible hammer on the USD/JPY
The USD/JPY
has fallen recently on comments by Donald Trump where the president of the
United States is not happy with a strong Dollar. That was the main reason why
the USD/JPY has fallen close to the 55 day EMA around the 110.67 level. Towards
the end of the session, the price goes back up and closes around the opening
level, leaving behind what is known as a hammer formation. The hammer pattern
is a bullish reversal formation and if the next candle is bullish, then the
price of the USD/JPY may change direction to the upside. The 113.00 level may
act as resistance in case the price reaches that zone one more time. To the downside,
the 55 day EMA may act once again as support in case the price drops to that
zone and below that level, the 110.00 area along with the 200 day EMA (blue
line) may also act as support on the USD/JPY.
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