Is the EUR/JPY heading back down?

On the daily chart of the EUR/JPY we can see that the pair is really in a downtrend in the medium term, due to the downward slope that the 200 day exponential moving average has, blue line. The price has been retracing to the upside lately, but during the last few daily candles we can see the bearish momentum accelerating. On the last leg down from the high at the 132.29 level to the low at the 122.07, the price retraces a 50% Fibo. If the pair breaks the two red trendlines to the downside, then it may go back to its longer term bearish trend.

A break down may take the price to the low at the 122.07 level, which could act as support. To the upside, if the price breaks above the 50%, then the 61.8% Fibo, around the 128.38 may act as resistance. But the most important Fibo level which usually works as support or resistance is the 76.4%. Therefore, we must pay attention to a visit of the EUR/JPY to the 129.85 zone, which is where the 76.4% Fibo is sitting at.